Man Utd – Aston Villa odds
Man Utd went into the match as clear favourites against Aston Villa.
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Man Utd – Aston Villa: closing odds analysis
- Man Utd were favourites: the closing odds implied a 45% chance of a home win, 30% for Aston Villa and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Man Utd 2.22 at Betano, the draw 4.00 at bwin, Aston Villa 3.41 at VBET.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 98.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Aston Villa drifted from 3.10 at the opening to 3.41 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance of three or more goals and 65% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Man Utd or Aston Villa?
Man Utd, clearly: the closing odds put 15.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Man Utd – Aston Villa?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Man Utd, bwin on the draw and VBET on Aston Villa. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (98.0%) and Bet25 the least (92.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | MAN UTD | DRAW | ASTON VILLA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.10 | 4.00 best price | 3.40 | 98.0% |
| Betano | 2.22 best price | 4.00 best price | 3.10 | 97.7% |
| ComeOn | 2.21 | 3.81 | 3.07 | 96.1% |
| Merkur Bets | 2.05 | 4.00 best price | 3.30 | 96.1% |
| Spilhuset | 2.21 | 3.69 | 3.11 | 95.7% |
| Betinia | 2.14 | 3.80 | 3.14 | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 2.14 | 3.80 | 3.14 | 95.3% |
| Casinomoto | 2.14 | 3.80 | 3.14 | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 2.14 | 3.80 | 3.14 | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 2.14 | 3.80 | 3.14 | 95.3% |
| Expekt | 2.02 | 3.90 | 3.35 | 95.2% |
| GetLucky | 2.19 | 3.78 | 3.04 | 95.2% |
| Casinostuen | 2.19 | 3.78 | 3.04 | 95.2% |
| VBET | 1.97 | 4.00 best price | 3.41 best price | 95.2% |
| Oddset | 2.19 | 3.75 | 3.05 | 95.1% |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 3.90 | 3.30 | 94.8% |
| SpreadEx | 1.95 | 4.00 best price | 3.40 | 94.6% |
| Stake | 1.92 | 4.00 best price | 3.40 | 93.9% |
| bwin | 1.95 | 4.00 best price | 3.30 | 93.8% |
| Betmaster | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.00 | 93.1% |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 92.9% |
| Mr Green | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 92.9% |
| Bet25 | 2.10 | 3.85 | 2.85 | 92.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.22 | 4.00 | 3.41 | 100.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.92–2.22 · 15.6% | 3.55–4.00 · 12.7% | 2.85–3.41 · 19.6% | 92.0–98.0% |
How did the Man Utd – Aston Villa odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Aston Villa drifted from 3.10 when odds opened on 25 Oct to 3.41 at kick-off, a 10.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MAN UTD | DRAW | ASTON VILLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct (open) | 2.21 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Mon 2 Nov | 2.30 | 3.85 | 3.10 |
| Sun 8 Nov (kick-off) | 2.22 | 4.00 | 3.41 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 65.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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