Genoa – AC Milan odds
AC Milan went into the match as clear favourites against Genoa.
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Genoa – AC Milan: closing odds analysis
- AC Milan were favourites: the closing odds implied a 48% chance of an away win, 24% for Genoa and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Genoa 4.50 at Oddset, the draw 3.50 at Stake, AC Milan 2.00 at Betmaster.
- Oddset had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on AC Milan drifted from 1.77 at the opening to 2.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 43% chance of three or more goals and 50% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Genoa or AC Milan?
AC Milan, clearly: the closing odds put 24.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Genoa – AC Milan?
It depended on the outcome: Oddset was best on Genoa, Stake on the draw and Betmaster on AC Milan. Across all three outcomes Oddset paid out the most (95.4%) and Bet25 the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | GENOA | DRAW | AC MILAN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oddset | 4.50 best price | 3.50 best price | 1.85 | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 4.00 | 3.50 best price | 1.95 | 95.4% |
| CampoBet | 4.00 | 3.50 best price | 1.95 | 95.4% |
| Casinomoto | 4.00 | 3.50 best price | 1.95 | 95.4% |
| Betoro | 4.00 | 3.50 best price | 1.95 | 95.4% |
| Casino House | 4.00 | 3.50 best price | 1.95 | 95.4% |
| VBET | 3.99 | 3.45 | 1.96 | 95.2% |
| bwin | 4.00 | 3.30 | 1.98 | 94.5% |
| Stake | 3.80 | 3.50 best price | 1.95 | 94.2% |
| ComeOn | 3.91 | 3.32 | 1.98 | 94.2% |
| GetLucky | 3.88 | 3.29 | 1.96 | 93.3% |
| Casinostuen | 3.88 | 3.29 | 1.96 | 93.3% |
| Betmaster | 3.85 | 3.20 | 2.00 best price | 93.3% |
| 888sport | 4.00 | 3.20 | 1.90 | 91.8% |
| Mr Green | 4.00 | 3.20 | 1.90 | 91.8% |
| Bet25 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 1.90 | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.50 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 99.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.70–4.50 · 21.6% | 3.20–3.50 · 9.4% | 1.85–2.00 · 8.1% | 90.9–95.4% |
How did the Genoa – AC Milan odds move before kick-off?
The best price on AC Milan drifted from 1.77 when odds opened on 1 Nov to 2.00 at kick-off, a 13.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | GENOA | DRAW | AC MILAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov (open) | 5.00 | 3.70 | 1.77 |
| Thu 5 Nov | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.81 |
| Sun 8 Nov (kick-off) | 4.50 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Fewer than three goals was the likelier outcome in the closing odds. Both teams to score was priced at 50.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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