Freiburg – Union Berlin odds
Freiburg went into the match as heavy favourites against Union Berlin.
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Freiburg – Union Berlin: closing odds analysis
- Freiburg were favourites: the closing odds implied a 66% chance of a home win, 14% for Union Berlin and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Freiburg 1.52 at Casino House, the draw 4.80 at Stake, Union Berlin 7.50 at Betinia.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Union Berlin drifted from 6.00 at the opening to 7.50 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance of three or more goals and 52% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Freiburg or Union Berlin?
Freiburg, by a distance: the closing odds put 51.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Freiburg – Union Berlin?
It depended on the outcome: Casino House was best on Freiburg, Stake on the draw and Betinia on Union Berlin. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.5%) and Mr Green the least (93.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | FREIBURG | DRAW | UNION BERLIN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.75 | 7.40 | 97.5% |
| Casino House | 1.52 best price | 4.50 | 6.00 | 95.5% |
| ComeOn | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.93 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.50 best price | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.50 best price | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.50 best price | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.50 best price | 95.2% |
| VBET | 1.47 | 4.40 | 7.00 | 95.2% |
| Oddset | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.75 | 95.0% |
| GetLucky | 1.42 | 4.71 | 6.87 | 94.2% |
| Casinostuen | 1.42 | 4.71 | 6.87 | 94.2% |
| bwin | 1.46 | 4.60 | 6.25 | 94.1% |
| Stake | 1.42 | 4.80 best price | 6.60 | 94.0% |
| Bet25 | 1.42 | 4.80 best price | 6.20 | 93.1% |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.50 | 93.0% |
| Mr Green | 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.50 | 93.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.52 | 4.80 | 7.50 | 100.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.42–1.52 · 7.0% | 4.40–4.80 · 9.1% | 6.00–7.50 · 25.0% | 93.0–97.5% |
How did the Freiburg – Union Berlin odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Union Berlin drifted from 6.00 when odds opened on 26 Oct to 7.50 at kick-off, a 25.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FREIBURG | DRAW | UNION BERLIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 Oct (open) | 1.55 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Mon 2 Nov | 1.55 | 4.75 | 6.20 |
| Sun 8 Nov (kick-off) | 1.52 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 51.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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