Crystal Palace – Liverpool odds
Liverpool went into the match as heavy favourites against Crystal Palace.
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Crystal Palace – Liverpool: closing odds analysis
- Liverpool were favourites: the closing odds implied a 62% chance of an away win, 17% for Crystal Palace and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Crystal Palace 6.25 at Unibet, the draw 4.80 at Stake, Liverpool 1.58 at bwin.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 98.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Crystal Palace drifted from 4.65 at the opening to 6.25 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 62% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Crystal Palace or Liverpool?
Liverpool, by a distance: the closing odds put 44.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Crystal Palace – Liverpool?
It depended on the outcome: Unibet was best on Crystal Palace, Stake on the draw and bwin on Liverpool. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (98.1%) and Mr Green the least (91.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | CRYSTAL PALACE | DRAW | LIVERPOOL | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 6.25 best price | 4.75 | 1.54 | 98.1% |
| Betano | 5.60 | 4.70 | 1.57 | 97.2% |
| VBET | 5.90 | 4.40 | 1.56 | 96.4% |
| ComeOn | 5.55 | 4.65 | 1.55 | 96.1% |
| Merkur Bets | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.57 | 96.1% |
| SpreadEx | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.53 | 96.0% |
| Casinomoto | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.52 | 95.5% |
| Spilhuset | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.52 | 95.5% |
| LeoVegas | 5.40 | 4.60 | 1.55 | 95.4% |
| GetLucky | 5.49 | 4.61 | 1.54 | 95.4% |
| Casinostuen | 5.49 | 4.61 | 1.54 | 95.4% |
| Oddset | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.55 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.57 | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.57 | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.57 | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.57 | 95.3% |
| Expekt | 5.40 | 4.70 | 1.53 | 95.2% |
| Stake | 5.60 | 4.80 best price | 1.49 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.58 best price | 94.3% |
| Betmaster | 5.04 | 4.21 | 1.57 | 93.2% |
| Bet25 | 5.00 | 4.70 | 1.51 | 93.0% |
| 888sport | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.53 | 91.6% |
| Mr Green | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.53 | 91.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 6.25 | 4.80 | 1.58 | 99.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 5.00–6.25 · 25.0% | 4.20–4.80 · 14.3% | 1.49–1.58 · 6.0% | 91.6–98.1% |
How did the Crystal Palace – Liverpool odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Crystal Palace drifted from 4.65 when odds opened on 25 Oct to 6.25 at kick-off, a 34.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CRYSTAL PALACE | DRAW | LIVERPOOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct (open) | 4.65 | 4.25 | 1.67 |
| Mon 2 Nov | 5.33 | 4.45 | 1.75 |
| Sun 8 Nov (kick-off) | 6.25 | 4.80 | 1.58 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 59.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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