Atlético Madrid – Barcelona odds
Barcelona went into the match as clear favourites against Atlético Madrid.
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Atlético Madrid – Barcelona: closing odds analysis
- Barcelona were favourites: the closing odds implied a 51% chance of an away win, 27% for Atlético Madrid and 22% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Atlético Madrid 3.65 at Betano, the draw 4.60 at bwin, Barcelona 1.95 at Casino House.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.33 at the opening to 4.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 71% chance of three or more goals and 70% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Atlético Madrid or Barcelona?
Barcelona, clearly: the closing odds put 24.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Atlético Madrid – Barcelona?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Atlético Madrid, bwin on the draw and Casino House on Barcelona. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.5%) and Bet25 the least (87.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | ATLÉTICO MADRID | DRAW | BARCELONA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 3.65 best price | 4.60 best price | 1.87 | 97.5% |
| VBET | 3.53 | 4.40 | 1.89 | 96.2% |
| Merkur Bets | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.91 | 96.1% |
| Spilhuset | 3.55 | 4.40 | 1.87 | 95.8% |
| LeoVegas | 3.60 | 4.33 | 1.85 | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 3.33 | 4.20 | 1.95 best price | 95.1% |
| SpreadEx | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.87 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.87 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.87 | 95.1% |
| ComeOn | 3.62 | 4.36 | 1.83 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 3.60 | 4.50 | 1.81 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 3.60 | 4.50 | 1.81 | 95.0% |
| Expekt | 3.55 | 4.33 | 1.85 | 95.0% |
| Oddset | 3.50 | 4.25 | 1.87 | 94.7% |
| Unibet | 3.55 | 4.50 | 1.81 | 94.7% |
| Stake | 3.60 | 4.40 | 1.81 | 94.6% |
| GetLucky | 3.58 | 4.32 | 1.82 | 94.3% |
| Casinostuen | 3.58 | 4.32 | 1.82 | 94.3% |
| Betmaster | 3.58 | 4.03 | 1.86 | 93.9% |
| bwin | 3.20 | 4.60 best price | 1.85 | 93.4% |
| 888sport | 3.30 | 4.00 | 1.85 | 91.4% |
| Mr Green | 3.30 | 4.00 | 1.85 | 91.4% |
| Bet25 | 3.20 | 4.30 | 1.68 | 87.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.65 | 4.60 | 1.95 | 99.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.20–3.65 · 14.1% | 4.00–4.60 · 15.0% | 1.68–1.95 · 16.1% | 87.7–97.5% |
How did the Atlético Madrid – Barcelona odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.33 when odds opened on 26 Oct to 4.60 at kick-off, a 6.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ATLÉTICO MADRID | DRAW | BARCELONA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 Oct (open) | 3.80 | 4.33 | 1.85 |
| Mon 2 Nov | 3.85 | 4.33 | 1.89 |
| Sun 8 Nov (kick-off) | 3.65 | 4.60 | 1.95 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 69.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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