Watford – Middlesbrough odds
Middlesbrough went into the match as heavy favourites against Watford.
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Watford – Middlesbrough: closing odds analysis
- Middlesbrough were favourites: the closing odds implied a 64% chance of an away win, 16% for Watford and 20% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Watford 6.33 at Betinia, the draw 4.80 at Bet25, Middlesbrough 1.49 at bwin.
- Oddset had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Watford drifted from 5.20 at the opening to 6.33 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Watford or Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough, by a distance: the closing odds put 48.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Watford – Middlesbrough?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Watford, Bet25 on the draw and bwin on Middlesbrough. Across all three outcomes Oddset paid out the most (95.4%) and Betmaster the least (90.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | WATFORD | DRAW | MIDDLESBROUGH | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oddset | 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.49 best price | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 6.33 best price | 4.75 | 1.47 | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 6.33 best price | 4.75 | 1.47 | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 6.33 best price | 4.75 | 1.47 | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 6.33 best price | 4.75 | 1.47 | 95.3% |
| Betano | 6.30 | 4.65 | 1.47 | 94.9% |
| SpreadEx | 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.47 | 94.6% |
| Stake | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.48 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 5.75 | 4.60 | 1.49 best price | 94.1% |
| Casinomoto | 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.45 | 93.7% |
| ComeOn | 5.94 | 4.76 | 1.45 | 93.6% |
| Bet25 | 5.40 | 4.80 best price | 1.46 | 92.7% |
| GetLucky | 5.89 | 4.71 | 1.43 | 92.5% |
| Casinostuen | 5.89 | 4.71 | 1.43 | 92.5% |
| 888sport | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 91.7% |
| Mr Green | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 91.7% |
| VBET | 5.40 | 4.33 | 1.46 | 90.8% |
| Betmaster | 5.60 | 4.50 | 1.42 | 90.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 6.33 | 4.80 | 1.49 | 96.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 5.40–6.33 · 17.2% | 4.33–4.80 · 10.9% | 1.42–1.49 · 4.9% | 90.5–95.4% |
How did the Watford – Middlesbrough odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Watford drifted from 5.20 when odds opened on 31 Oct to 6.33 at kick-off, a 21.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | WATFORD | DRAW | MIDDLESBROUGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct (open) | 5.20 | 4.60 | 1.55 |
| Tue 3 Nov | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.55 |
| Sat 7 Nov (kick-off) | 6.33 | 4.80 | 1.49 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 56.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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