Parma – Bologna odds
Bologna went into the match as heavy favourites against Parma.
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Parma – Bologna: closing odds analysis
- Bologna were favourites: the closing odds implied a 55% chance of an away win, 18% for Parma and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Parma 5.80 at VBET, the draw 3.65 at Stake, Bologna 1.83 at bwin.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Parma drifted from 4.50 at the opening to 5.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 44% chance of three or more goals.
Who were the favourites, Parma or Bologna?
Bologna, by a distance: the closing odds put 36.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Parma – Bologna?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Parma, Stake on the draw and bwin on Bologna. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.3%) and Mr Green the least (91.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | PARMA | DRAW | BOLOGNA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 5.80 best price | 3.50 | 1.69 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 5.33 | 3.60 | 1.71 | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 5.33 | 3.60 | 1.71 | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 5.33 | 3.60 | 1.71 | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 5.33 | 3.60 | 1.71 | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 5.33 | 3.60 | 1.71 | 95.2% |
| Oddset | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.74 | 95.0% |
| Stake | 5.60 | 3.65 best price | 1.65 | 94.5% |
| ComeOn | 5.05 | 3.62 | 1.71 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 4.40 | 3.50 | 1.83 best price | 94.4% |
| GetLucky | 5.00 | 3.58 | 1.70 | 93.7% |
| Casinostuen | 5.00 | 3.58 | 1.70 | 93.7% |
| Betmaster | 4.90 | 3.40 | 1.74 | 93.2% |
| 888sport | 4.80 | 3.40 | 1.70 | 91.7% |
| Mr Green | 4.80 | 3.40 | 1.70 | 91.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.80 | 3.65 | 1.83 | 100.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.40–5.80 · 31.8% | 3.40–3.65 · 7.4% | 1.65–1.83 · 10.9% | 91.7–95.3% |
How did the Parma – Bologna odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Parma drifted from 4.50 when odds opened on 1 Nov to 5.80 at kick-off, a 28.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PARMA | DRAW | BOLOGNA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1 Nov (open) | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.84 |
| Wed 4 Nov | 4.50 | 3.55 | 1.87 |
| Sat 7 Nov (kick-off) | 5.80 | 3.65 | 1.83 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Fewer than three goals was the likelier outcome in the closing odds.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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