Nottingham Forest – Man City odds
Man City went into the match as heavy favourites against Nottingham Forest.
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Nottingham Forest – Man City: closing odds analysis
- Man City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 56% chance of an away win, 20% for Nottingham Forest and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Nottingham Forest 5.30 at VBET, the draw 4.30 at Stake, Man City 1.75 at bwin.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 98.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Nottingham Forest drifted from 4.75 at the opening to 5.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Nottingham Forest or Man City?
Man City, by a distance: the closing odds put 36.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Nottingham Forest – Man City?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Nottingham Forest, Stake on the draw and bwin on Man City. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (98.0%) and Mr Green the least (92.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | NOTTINGHAM FOREST | DRAW | MAN CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 5.30 best price | 4.30 best price | 1.67 | 98.0% |
| Betano | 4.70 | 4.10 | 1.75 best price | 97.3% |
| VBET | 5.30 best price | 4.30 best price | 1.62 | 96.3% |
| Merkur Bets | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.73 | 96.3% |
| ComeOn | 4.65 | 4.16 | 1.71 | 96.1% |
| Spilhuset | 4.90 | 4.10 | 1.68 | 95.9% |
| GetLucky | 4.61 | 4.12 | 1.70 | 95.4% |
| Casinostuen | 4.61 | 4.12 | 1.70 | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.73 | 95.1% |
| Expekt | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.68 | 94.9% |
| LeoVegas | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.68 | 94.7% |
| Oddset | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.71 | 94.6% |
| SpreadEx | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.61 | 94.6% |
| Stake | 5.20 | 4.30 best price | 1.58 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.75 best price | 93.8% |
| Betmaster | 4.50 | 3.85 | 1.71 | 93.7% |
| Bet25 | 4.40 | 4.30 best price | 1.64 | 93.5% |
| 888sport | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.72 | 92.9% |
| Mr Green | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.72 | 92.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.30 | 4.30 | 1.75 | 100.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.20–5.30 · 26.2% | 3.75–4.30 · 14.7% | 1.58–1.75 · 10.8% | 92.9–98.0% |
How did the Nottingham Forest – Man City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Nottingham Forest drifted from 4.75 when odds opened on 25 Oct to 5.30 at kick-off, a 11.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | NOTTINGHAM FOREST | DRAW | MAN CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct (open) | 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.71 |
| Sun 1 Nov | 5.00 | 4.25 | 1.75 |
| Sat 7 Nov (kick-off) | 5.30 | 4.30 | 1.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 57.3%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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