Fulham – Newcastle odds
Fulham went into the match as clear favourites against Newcastle.
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Fulham – Newcastle: closing odds analysis
- Fulham were favourites: the closing odds implied a 47% chance of a home win, 28% for Newcastle and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Fulham 2.20 at Bet25, the draw 3.85 at Stake, Newcastle 3.75 at Unibet.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Newcastle drifted from 3.10 at the opening to 3.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 57% chance of three or more goals and 61% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Fulham or Newcastle?
Fulham, clearly: the closing odds put 18.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Fulham – Newcastle?
It depended on the outcome: Bet25 was best on Fulham, Stake on the draw and Unibet on Newcastle. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.9%) and Mr Green the least (92.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | FULHAM | DRAW | NEWCASTLE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.85 best price | 3.50 | 97.9% |
| Unibet | 2.04 | 3.75 | 3.75 best price | 97.7% |
| Merkur Bets | 2.03 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 96.8% |
| VBET | 1.98 | 3.85 best price | 3.65 | 96.3% |
| ComeOn | 2.07 | 3.71 | 3.47 | 96.1% |
| SpreadEx | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 95.8% |
| Spilhuset | 2.04 | 3.71 | 3.51 | 95.7% |
| Expekt | 2.00 | 3.85 best price | 3.50 | 95.7% |
| LeoVegas | 2.00 | 3.85 best price | 3.50 | 95.7% |
| Betinia | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| CampoBet | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| Casinomoto | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| Betoro | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| Casino House | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| GetLucky | 2.05 | 3.68 | 3.43 | 95.1% |
| Casinostuen | 2.05 | 3.68 | 3.43 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.45 | 95.1% |
| Stake | 1.91 | 3.85 best price | 3.60 | 94.2% |
| bwin | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.10 | 93.9% |
| Betmaster | 2.05 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 93.3% |
| Bet25 | 2.20 best price | 3.50 | 3.00 | 93.1% |
| 888sport | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 92.5% |
| Mr Green | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 92.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.20 | 3.85 | 3.75 | 101.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.91–2.20 · 15.2% | 3.45–3.85 · 11.6% | 3.00–3.75 · 25.0% | 92.5–97.9% |
How did the Fulham – Newcastle odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Newcastle drifted from 3.10 when odds opened on 25 Oct to 3.75 at kick-off, a 21.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FULHAM | DRAW | NEWCASTLE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct (open) | 2.37 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Sun 1 Nov | 2.32 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| Sat 7 Nov (kick-off) | 2.10 | 3.85 | 3.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 60.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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