Cardiff City – Burnley odds
Cardiff City went into the match as clear favourites against Burnley.
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Cardiff City – Burnley: closing odds analysis
- Cardiff City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 48% chance of a home win, 28% for Burnley and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Cardiff City 2.25 at bwin, the draw 4.10 at Stake, Burnley 3.60 at Stake.
- Betinia had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Burnley drifted from 2.80 at the opening to 3.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 59% chance of three or more goals and 65% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Cardiff City or Burnley?
Cardiff City, clearly: the closing odds put 19.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Cardiff City – Burnley?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Cardiff City, Stake on the draw and Stake on Burnley. Across all three outcomes Betinia paid out the most (95.3%) and Betmaster the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | CARDIFF CITY | DRAW | BURNLEY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betinia | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.50 | 95.3% |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 95.2% |
| Oddset | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.40 | 94.9% |
| Stake | 1.86 | 4.10 best price | 3.60 best price | 94.4% |
| SpreadEx | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 94.0% |
| ComeOn | 1.93 | 3.91 | 3.37 | 93.4% |
| bwin | 2.25 best price | 3.80 | 2.75 | 93.3% |
| GetLucky | 1.91 | 3.88 | 3.34 | 92.5% |
| Casinostuen | 1.91 | 3.88 | 3.34 | 92.5% |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.30 | 92.4% |
| Mr Green | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.30 | 92.4% |
| VBET | 1.82 | 3.89 | 3.41 | 90.9% |
| Bet25 | 1.90 | 3.95 | 3.10 | 90.7% |
| Betmaster | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.60 | 103.5% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.82–2.25 · 23.6% | 3.60–4.10 · 13.9% | 2.75–3.60 · 30.9% | 90.2–95.3% |
How did the Cardiff City – Burnley odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Burnley drifted from 2.80 when odds opened on 31 Oct to 3.60 at kick-off, a 28.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CARDIFF CITY | DRAW | BURNLEY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct (open) | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Tue 3 Nov | 2.27 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| Sat 7 Nov (kick-off) | 2.00 | 4.10 | 3.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 64.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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