Toulouse – Strasbourg odds
Toulouse went into the match as clear favourites against Strasbourg.
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Toulouse – Strasbourg: closing odds analysis
- Toulouse were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of a home win, 31% for Strasbourg and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Toulouse 2.23 at VBET, the draw 4.00 at CampoBet, Strasbourg 3.20 at Stake.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.70 at the opening to 4.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 59% chance of three or more goals.
Who were the favourites, Toulouse or Strasbourg?
Toulouse, clearly: the closing odds put 13.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Toulouse – Strasbourg?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Toulouse, CampoBet on the draw and Stake on Strasbourg. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.2%) and Bet25 the least (90.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | TOULOUSE | DRAW | STRASBOURG | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 2.23 best price | 3.59 | 3.20 best price | 96.2% |
| CampoBet | 2.14 | 4.00 best price | 3.00 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 2.20 | 3.80 | 3.00 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 2.20 | 3.80 | 3.00 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.20 | 3.80 | 3.00 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.20 | 3.80 | 3.00 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.16 | 3.75 | 3.10 | 95.0% |
| Stake | 2.13 | 3.65 | 3.20 best price | 94.7% |
| SpreadEx | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.20 best price | 94.4% |
| ComeOn | 2.13 | 3.67 | 3.07 | 93.7% |
| Betmaster | 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.10 | 93.5% |
| GetLucky | 2.11 | 3.63 | 3.04 | 92.7% |
| Casinostuen | 2.11 | 3.63 | 3.04 | 92.7% |
| 888sport | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 91.3% |
| Mr Green | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 91.3% |
| Bet25 | 2.04 | 3.70 | 2.90 | 90.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.23 | 4.00 | 3.20 | 98.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.04–2.23 · 9.3% | 3.50–4.00 · 14.3% | 2.90–3.20 · 10.3% | 90.5–96.2% |
How did the Toulouse – Strasbourg odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.70 when odds opened on 26 Oct to 4.00 at kick-off, a 8.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | TOULOUSE | DRAW | STRASBOURG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 26 Oct (open) | 2.08 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Sat 31 Oct | 2.08 | 3.80 | 3.35 |
| Fri 6 Nov (kick-off) | 2.23 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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