Derby County – Bolton odds
Derby County and Bolton went into the match almost level in the odds.
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Derby County – Bolton: closing odds analysis
- No clear favourite: the closing odds implied 37% for Derby County, 27% for a draw and 36% for Bolton.
- Best closing odds: Derby County 2.63 at SpreadEx, the draw 3.60 at Casino House, Bolton 2.85 at Stake.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Derby County drifted from 2.28 at the opening to 2.63 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Derby County or Bolton?
Neither side, really: the closing odds put only 1.7 percentage points between Derby County and Bolton.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Derby County – Bolton?
It depended on the outcome: SpreadEx was best on Derby County, Casino House on the draw and Stake on Bolton. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (95.3%) and Betmaster the least (89.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | DERBY COUNTY | DRAW | BOLTON | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 2.57 | 3.50 | 2.66 | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 2.57 | 3.50 | 2.66 | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 2.57 | 3.50 | 2.66 | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 2.50 | 3.60 best price | 2.66 | 94.9% |
| Oddset | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.60 | 94.8% |
| SpreadEx | 2.63 best price | 3.40 | 2.63 | 94.7% |
| Stake | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.85 best price | 94.2% |
| bwin | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.65 | 94.1% |
| Casinomoto | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.71 | 94.1% |
| ComeOn | 2.53 | 3.52 | 2.58 | 93.7% |
| GetLucky | 2.50 | 3.48 | 2.55 | 92.6% |
| Casinostuen | 2.50 | 3.48 | 2.55 | 92.6% |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.60 | 91.9% |
| Mr Green | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.60 | 91.9% |
| Bet25 | 2.46 | 3.55 | 2.50 | 91.9% |
| VBET | 2.32 | 3.32 | 2.72 | 90.9% |
| Betmaster | 2.47 | 3.25 | 2.50 | 89.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.85 | 99.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.32–2.63 · 13.1% | 3.25–3.60 · 10.8% | 2.50–2.85 · 14.0% | 89.9–95.3% |
How did the Derby County – Bolton odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Derby County drifted from 2.28 when odds opened on 31 Oct to 2.63 at kick-off, a 15.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | DERBY COUNTY | DRAW | BOLTON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 31 Oct (open) | 2.28 | 3.50 | 3.15 |
| Tue 3 Nov | 2.22 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
| Fri 6 Nov (kick-off) | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 57.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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