Sturm Graz – Celje odds
Sturm Graz went into the match as heavy favourites against Celje.
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Sturm Graz – Celje: closing odds analysis
- Sturm Graz were favourites: the closing odds implied a 62% chance of a home win, 16% for Celje and 22% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Sturm Graz 1.57 at Merkur Bets, the draw 4.65 at Betano, Celje 6.75 at Oddset.
- Merkur Bets had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Celje drifted from 5.30 at the opening to 6.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 60% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Sturm Graz or Celje?
Sturm Graz, by a distance: the closing odds put 45.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Sturm Graz – Celje?
It depended on the outcome: Merkur Bets was best on Sturm Graz, Betano on the draw and Oddset on Celje. Across all three outcomes Merkur Bets paid out the most (96.1%) and Casinostuen the least (91.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | STURM GRAZ | DRAW | CELJE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merkur Bets | 1.57 best price | 4.50 | 5.50 | 96.1% |
| Oddset | 1.51 | 4.25 | 6.75 best price | 95.6% |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.65 best price | 5.70 | 95.4% |
| Spilhuset | 1.52 | 4.50 | 5.70 | 94.7% |
| Unibet | 1.56 | 4.20 | 5.60 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 1.51 | 4.50 | 5.75 | 94.5% |
| Stake | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.80 | 94.2% |
| Betoro | 1.52 | 4.33 | 5.75 | 94.1% |
| Casino House | 1.52 | 4.33 | 5.75 | 94.1% |
| Betinia | 1.50 | 4.33 | 6.00 | 94.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.50 | 4.33 | 6.00 | 94.0% |
| Expekt | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.20 | 93.6% |
| SpreadEx | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.60 | 93.2% |
| LeoVegas | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.00 | 92.9% |
| 888sport | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 92.6% |
| Mr Green | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 92.6% |
| ComeOn | 1.46 | 4.16 | 6.44 | 92.5% |
| Bet25 | 1.48 | 4.30 | 5.80 | 92.5% |
| VBET | 1.49 | 4.33 | 5.60 | 92.5% |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.30 | 5.30 | 91.9% |
| GetLucky | 1.44 | 4.12 | 6.38 | 91.4% |
| Casinostuen | 1.44 | 4.12 | 6.38 | 91.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.57 | 4.65 | 6.75 | 100.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.44–1.57 · 9.1% | 4.12–4.65 · 12.9% | 5.00–6.75 · 35.0% | 91.4–96.1% |
How did the Sturm Graz – Celje odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Celje drifted from 5.30 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 6.75 at kick-off, a 27.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | STURM GRAZ | DRAW | CELJE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 1.61 | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| Fri 30 Oct | 1.63 | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 1.57 | 4.65 | 6.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 56.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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