Real Sociedad – Lyon odds
Real Sociedad went into the match as heavy favourites against Lyon.
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Real Sociedad – Lyon: closing odds analysis
- Real Sociedad were favourites: the closing odds implied a 56% chance of a home win, 21% for Lyon and 22% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Real Sociedad 1.71 at VBET, the draw 4.40 at bwin, Lyon 5.25 at bwin.
- Merkur Bets had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Lyon drifted from 3.60 at the opening to 5.25 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance of three or more goals and 62% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Real Sociedad or Lyon?
Real Sociedad, by a distance: the closing odds put 34.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Real Sociedad – Lyon?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Real Sociedad, bwin on the draw and bwin on Lyon. Across all three outcomes Merkur Bets paid out the most (96.0%) and Bet25 the least (91.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | REAL SOCIEDAD | DRAW | LYON | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merkur Bets | 1.70 | 4.33 | 4.50 | 96.0% |
| VBET | 1.71 best price | 4.20 | 4.50 | 95.7% |
| Oddset | 1.70 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 95.6% |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.55 | 95.6% |
| Spilhuset | 1.69 | 4.30 | 4.40 | 95.1% |
| bwin | 1.57 | 4.40 best price | 5.25 best price | 94.8% |
| ComeOn | 1.65 | 4.26 | 4.56 | 94.3% |
| Casinomoto | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 94.3% |
| Betoro | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 94.3% |
| Casino House | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 94.3% |
| Unibet | 1.68 | 4.20 | 4.35 | 94.1% |
| Betinia | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 93.9% |
| CampoBet | 1.69 | 4.20 | 4.25 | 93.9% |
| SpreadEx | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.40 | 93.9% |
| GetLucky | 1.64 | 4.22 | 4.51 | 93.6% |
| Casinostuen | 1.64 | 4.22 | 4.51 | 93.6% |
| LeoVegas | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.20 | 93.4% |
| Expekt | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.30 | 93.3% |
| Betmaster | 1.71 best price | 3.91 | 4.31 | 93.2% |
| 888sport | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 92.0% |
| Mr Green | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 92.0% |
| Bet25 | 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 91.4% |
| Stake | — | 4.10 | 4.40 | — |
| BEST PRICE | 1.71 | 4.40 | 5.25 | 99.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.57–1.71 · 8.9% | 3.91–4.40 · 12.5% | 4.00–5.25 · 31.3% | 91.4–96.0% |
How did the Real Sociedad – Lyon odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Lyon drifted from 3.60 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 5.25 at kick-off, a 45.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | REAL SOCIEDAD | DRAW | LYON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 2.02 | 3.80 | 3.65 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 1.71 | 4.40 | 5.25 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 61.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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