Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia odds
Panathinaikos went into the match as heavy favourites against CSKA Sofia.
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Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia: closing odds analysis
- Panathinaikos were favourites: the closing odds implied a 72% chance of a home win, 11% for CSKA Sofia and 17% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Panathinaikos 1.36 at Merkur Bets, the draw 6.00 at Stake, CSKA Sofia 10.00 at SpreadEx.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on CSKA Sofia drifted from 6.90 at the opening to 9.50 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance of three or more goals and 50% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Panathinaikos or CSKA Sofia?
Panathinaikos, by a distance: the closing odds put 60.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia?
It depended on the outcome: Merkur Bets was best on Panathinaikos, Stake on the draw and SpreadEx on CSKA Sofia. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (97.0%) and Betmaster the least (90.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | PANATHINAIKOS | DRAW | CSKA SOFIA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.35 | 5.40 | 9.50 | 97.0% |
| Merkur Bets | 1.36 best price | 5.50 | 8.50 | 96.5% |
| Betano | 1.33 | 5.30 | 9.00 | 95.1% |
| Spilhuset | 1.32 | 5.60 | 8.60 | 95.0% |
| Stake | 1.27 | 6.00 best price | 9.40 | 94.3% |
| SpreadEx | 1.25 | 6.00 best price | 10.00 best price | 93.8% |
| Bet25 | 1.32 | 5.60 | 7.60 | 93.7% |
| Expekt | 1.31 | 5.50 | 8.00 | 93.4% |
| LeoVegas | 1.30 | 5.60 | 8.00 | 93.2% |
| Betoro | 1.30 | 5.33 | 8.50 | 93.1% |
| Casino House | 1.30 | 5.33 | 8.50 | 93.1% |
| VBET | 1.26 | 5.70 | 9.40 | 93.0% |
| ComeOn | 1.29 | 5.45 | 8.22 | 92.6% |
| bwin | 1.32 | 5.00 | 7.75 | 92.0% |
| Betinia | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 92.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 92.0% |
| GetLucky | 1.28 | 5.40 | 8.15 | 91.8% |
| Casinostuen | 1.28 | 5.40 | 8.15 | 91.8% |
| 888sport | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 91.4% |
| Mr Green | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 91.4% |
| Betmaster | 1.31 | 5.00 | 7.20 | 90.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.36 | 6.00 | 10.00 | 99.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.25–1.36 · 8.6% | 5.00–6.00 · 20.0% | 7.20–10.00 · 38.9% | 90.7–97.0% |
How did the Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia odds move before kick-off?
The best price on CSKA Sofia drifted from 6.90 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 9.50 at kick-off, a 37.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PANATHINAIKOS | DRAW | CSKA SOFIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.90 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 1.47 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 1.36 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 50.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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