Lugano – Žalgiris Kaunas odds
Lugano went into the match as heavy favourites against Žalgiris Kaunas.
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Lugano – Žalgiris Kaunas: closing odds analysis
- Lugano were favourites: the closing odds implied a 81% chance of a home win, 6% for Žalgiris Kaunas and 13% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lugano 1.18 at Merkur Bets, the draw 9.00 at Spilhuset, Žalgiris Kaunas 17.00 at Unibet.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 5.90 at the opening to 9.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 64% chance of three or more goals and 44% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lugano or Žalgiris Kaunas?
Lugano, by a distance: the closing odds put 74.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lugano – Žalgiris Kaunas?
It depended on the outcome: Merkur Bets was best on Lugano, Spilhuset on the draw and Unibet on Žalgiris Kaunas. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (97.0%) and Betmaster the least (90.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | LUGANO | DRAW | ŽALGIRIS KAUNAS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.18 | 8.00 | 17.00 best price | 97.0% |
| Merkur Bets | 1.18 best price | 7.50 | 15.00 | 95.6% |
| Betano | 1.18 | 7.10 | 17.00 best price | 95.5% |
| Spilhuset | 1.13 | 9.00 best price | 17.00 best price | 94.8% |
| Stake | 1.17 | 7.40 | 15.00 | 94.7% |
| Bet25 | 1.16 | 8.00 | 14.00 | 94.5% |
| Expekt | 1.16 | 7.50 | 13.00 | 93.3% |
| LeoVegas | 1.17 | 7.00 | 13.00 | 93.1% |
| SpreadEx | 1.14 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 93.0% |
| Betoro | 1.15 | 7.00 | 16.00 | 93.0% |
| Casino House | 1.15 | 7.00 | 16.00 | 93.0% |
| bwin | 1.16 | 7.00 | 13.50 | 92.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.14 | 7.33 | 14.86 | 92.5% |
| VBET | 1.14 | 7.20 | 15.00 | 92.4% |
| Betinia | 1.15 | 7.00 | 14.00 | 92.3% |
| CampoBet | 1.15 | 7.00 | 14.00 | 92.3% |
| 888sport | 1.18 | 6.50 | 12.00 | 92.2% |
| Mr Green | 1.18 | 6.50 | 12.00 | 92.2% |
| GetLucky | 1.13 | 7.26 | 14.73 | 91.7% |
| Casinostuen | 1.13 | 7.26 | 14.73 | 91.7% |
| Betmaster | 1.14 | 7.00 | 12.00 | 90.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.18 | 9.00 | 17.00 | 98.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.13–1.18 · 4.6% | 6.50–9.00 · 38.5% | 12.00–17.00 · 41.7% | 90.6–97.0% |
How did the Lugano – Žalgiris Kaunas odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 5.90 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 9.00 at kick-off, a 52.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LUGANO | DRAW | ŽALGIRIS KAUNAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 1.25 | 5.90 | 12.00 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 1.22 | 7.20 | 13.00 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 1.18 | 9.00 | 17.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 44.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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The odds imply probabilities; they are not predictions. OddsStat is a comparison service, not a bookmaker. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.