Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split odds
Hajduk Split went into the match as heavy favourites against Lincoln Red Imps.
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Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split: closing odds analysis
- Hajduk Split were favourites: the closing odds implied a 73% chance of an away win, 10% for Lincoln Red Imps and 17% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lincoln Red Imps 10.50 at Unibet, the draw 5.80 at Stake, Hajduk Split 1.32 at Merkur Bets.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 5.20 at the opening to 5.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance of three or more goals and 46% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lincoln Red Imps or Hajduk Split?
Hajduk Split, by a distance: the closing odds put 62.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split?
It depended on the outcome: Unibet was best on Lincoln Red Imps, Stake on the draw and Merkur Bets on Hajduk Split. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (96.4%) and Betmaster the least (90.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | LINCOLN RED IMPS | DRAW | HAJDUK SPLIT | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 10.50 best price | 5.80 best price | 1.30 | 96.4% |
| Merkur Bets | 10.00 | 5.50 | 1.32 best price | 96.4% |
| Betano | 9.75 | 5.20 | 1.32 | 95.0% |
| Stake | 9.80 | 5.80 best price | 1.28 | 94.7% |
| Bet25 | 9.00 | 5.80 best price | 1.29 | 94.5% |
| Spilhuset | 9.80 | 5.30 | 1.30 | 94.3% |
| Expekt | 9.50 | 5.60 | 1.27 | 93.4% |
| LeoVegas | 9.50 | 5.60 | 1.27 | 93.4% |
| Casinomoto | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.30 | 93.1% |
| Betoro | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.30 | 93.1% |
| Casino House | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.30 | 93.1% |
| SpreadEx | 10.00 | 5.60 | 1.25 | 92.7% |
| ComeOn | 9.51 | 5.55 | 1.26 | 92.7% |
| Betinia | 9.00 | 5.00 | 1.30 | 92.6% |
| CampoBet | 9.00 | 5.00 | 1.30 | 92.6% |
| bwin | 8.00 | 5.25 | 1.30 | 92.2% |
| VBET | 10.00 | 5.40 | 1.25 | 92.2% |
| 888sport | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.28 | 92.0% |
| Mr Green | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.28 | 92.0% |
| GetLucky | 9.42 | 5.50 | 1.25 | 91.9% |
| Casinostuen | 9.42 | 5.50 | 1.25 | 91.9% |
| Betmaster | 8.20 | 5.20 | 1.27 | 90.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 10.50 | 5.80 | 1.32 | 97.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 8.00–10.50 · 31.3% | 5.00–5.80 · 16.0% | 1.25–1.32 · 5.8% | 90.8–96.4% |
How did the Lincoln Red Imps – Hajduk Split odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 5.20 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 5.80 at kick-off, a 11.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LINCOLN RED IMPS | DRAW | HAJDUK SPLIT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 10.00 | 5.20 | 1.32 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 10.00 | 5.00 | 1.35 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 10.50 | 5.80 | 1.32 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 45.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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