FC Midtjylland – Ajax odds
Ajax went into the match as narrow favourites against FC Midtjylland.
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FC Midtjylland – Ajax: closing odds analysis
- Ajax were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of an away win, 33% for FC Midtjylland and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: FC Midtjylland 3.03 at VBET, the draw 4.10 at VBET, Ajax 2.34 at Spilhuset.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 98.0%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.60 at the opening to 4.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 62% chance of three or more goals and 67% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, FC Midtjylland or Ajax?
Ajax, but only just: the closing odds put 10.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on FC Midtjylland – Ajax?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on FC Midtjylland, VBET on the draw and Spilhuset on Ajax. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (98.0%) and Bet25 the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | FC MIDTJYLLAND | DRAW | AJAX | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.88 | 4.10 best price | 2.33 | 98.0% |
| VBET | 3.03 best price | 4.10 best price | 2.14 | 96.0% |
| Merkur Bets | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.18 | 96.0% |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.95 | 2.25 | 95.4% |
| Spilhuset | 2.72 | 3.83 | 2.34 best price | 94.7% |
| Stake | 2.95 | 3.90 | 2.15 | 94.3% |
| Expekt | 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.15 | 93.8% |
| LeoVegas | 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.15 | 93.8% |
| SpreadEx | 2.80 | 3.90 | 2.20 | 93.6% |
| Casinomoto | 2.71 | 4.00 | 2.22 | 93.5% |
| Betoro | 2.71 | 4.00 | 2.22 | 93.5% |
| Casino House | 3.00 | 3.66 | 2.16 | 93.5% |
| Betinia | 2.71 | 4.00 | 2.16 | 92.4% |
| CampoBet | 2.71 | 4.00 | 2.16 | 92.4% |
| ComeOn | 2.92 | 3.96 | 2.05 | 92.4% |
| Mr Green | 2.87 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 91.6% |
| GetLucky | 2.90 | 3.93 | 2.03 | 91.6% |
| Casinostuen | 2.90 | 3.93 | 2.03 | 91.6% |
| 888sport | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.15 | 91.5% |
| bwin | 2.65 | 3.70 | 2.20 | 90.7% |
| Betmaster | 2.75 | 3.55 | 2.16 | 90.2% |
| Bet25 | 2.70 | 3.95 | 2.06 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.03 | 4.10 | 2.34 | 99.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.65–3.03 · 14.3% | 3.55–4.10 · 15.5% | 2.03–2.34 · 15.3% | 90.2–98.0% |
How did the FC Midtjylland – Ajax odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.60 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 4.10 at kick-off, a 13.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FC MIDTJYLLAND | DRAW | AJAX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 2.87 | 3.60 | 2.37 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.42 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 3.03 | 4.10 | 2.34 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 67.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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The odds imply probabilities; they are not predictions. OddsStat is a comparison service, not a bookmaker. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.