Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim odds
Crystal Palace went into the match as heavy favourites against Hoffenheim.
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Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim: closing odds analysis
- Crystal Palace were favourites: the closing odds implied a 51% chance of a home win, 25% for Hoffenheim and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Crystal Palace 1.95 at bwin, the draw 4.16 at ComeOn, Hoffenheim 4.10 at Unibet.
- Merkur Bets had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Hoffenheim drifted from 3.85 at the opening to 4.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 61% chance of three or more goals and 63% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Crystal Palace or Hoffenheim?
Crystal Palace, by a distance: the closing odds put 26.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Crystal Palace, ComeOn on the draw and Unibet on Hoffenheim. Across all three outcomes Merkur Bets paid out the most (96.4%) and Bet25 the least (91.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | CRYSTAL PALACE | DRAW | HOFFENHEIM | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merkur Bets | 1.91 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 96.4% |
| Oddset | 1.86 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 95.2% |
| Unibet | 1.77 | 4.10 | 4.10 best price | 95.0% |
| Betano | 1.83 | 4.05 | 3.85 | 95.0% |
| Spilhuset | 1.82 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 94.7% |
| Stake | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 94.3% |
| ComeOn | 1.78 | 4.16 best price | 3.86 | 94.2% |
| bwin | 1.95 best price | 3.80 | 3.50 | 94.2% |
| SpreadEx | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 94.2% |
| Betinia | 1.81 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 93.8% |
| CampoBet | 1.81 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 93.8% |
| Casinomoto | 1.81 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 93.8% |
| Betoro | 1.81 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 93.8% |
| Casino House | 1.81 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 93.8% |
| Expekt | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.50 | 93.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.77 | 4.12 | 3.83 | 93.6% |
| Casinostuen | 1.77 | 4.12 | 3.83 | 93.6% |
| LeoVegas | 1.88 | 3.90 | 3.55 | 93.5% |
| VBET | 1.88 | 3.76 | 3.56 | 92.7% |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 91.7% |
| Mr Green | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 91.7% |
| Bet25 | 1.75 | 4.10 | 3.60 | 91.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.95 | 4.16 | 4.10 | 100.3% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.75–1.95 · 11.4% | 3.76–4.16 · 10.6% | 3.50–4.10 · 17.1% | 91.5–96.4% |
How did the Crystal Palace – Hoffenheim odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Hoffenheim drifted from 3.85 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 4.10 at kick-off, a 6.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CRYSTAL PALACE | DRAW | HOFFENHEIM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 1.90 | 3.95 | 3.85 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 1.95 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 1.91 | 4.16 | 4.10 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 63.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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