Benfica – Lech Poznan odds
Benfica went into the match as heavy favourites against Lech Poznan.
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Benfica – Lech Poznan: closing odds analysis
- Benfica were favourites: the closing odds implied a 79% chance of a home win, 8% for Lech Poznan and 12% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Benfica 1.25 at Merkur Bets, the draw 8.00 at Stake, Lech Poznan 14.00 at Betinia.
- Merkur Bets had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Lech Poznan drifted from 12.00 at the opening to 14.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 75% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Benfica or Lech Poznan?
Benfica, by a distance: the closing odds put 70.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Benfica – Lech Poznan?
It depended on the outcome: Merkur Bets was best on Benfica, Stake on the draw and Betinia on Lech Poznan. Across all three outcomes Merkur Bets paid out the most (96.8%) and VBET the least (92.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | BENFICA | DRAW | LECH POZNAN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merkur Bets | 1.25 best price | 7.50 | 10.00 | 96.8% |
| bwin | 1.23 | 7.75 | 9.50 | 95.5% |
| Oddset | 1.21 | 7.50 | 11.00 | 95.2% |
| Betano | 1.21 | 7.10 | 11.75 | 95.0% |
| Stake | 1.18 | 8.00 best price | 12.00 | 94.7% |
| Unibet | 1.19 | 8.00 best price | 11.00 | 94.7% |
| Spilhuset | 1.16 | 8.00 best price | 14.00 best price | 94.5% |
| ComeOn | 1.19 | 7.63 | 11.14 | 94.2% |
| Betoro | 1.16 | 8.00 best price | 13.00 | 94.0% |
| Casino House | 1.16 | 8.00 best price | 13.00 | 94.0% |
| LeoVegas | 1.21 | 7.50 | 9.50 | 93.9% |
| Betmaster | 1.21 | 7.20 | 10.00 | 93.9% |
| Betinia | 1.15 | 8.00 best price | 14.00 best price | 93.8% |
| CampoBet | 1.15 | 8.00 best price | 14.00 best price | 93.8% |
| GetLucky | 1.18 | 7.56 | 11.04 | 93.4% |
| Casinostuen | 1.18 | 7.56 | 11.04 | 93.4% |
| 888sport | 1.15 | 8.00 best price | 13.00 | 93.3% |
| Mr Green | 1.15 | 8.00 best price | 13.00 | 93.3% |
| Expekt | 1.21 | 7.00 | 9.50 | 93.1% |
| SpreadEx | 1.20 | 7.00 | 10.00 | 92.9% |
| Bet25 | 1.18 | 8.00 best price | 9.40 | 92.7% |
| VBET | 1.20 | 6.70 | 10.00 | 92.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.25 | 8.00 | 14.00 | 100.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.15–1.25 · 8.7% | 6.70–8.00 · 19.4% | 9.40–14.00 · 48.9% | 92.4–96.8% |
How did the Benfica – Lech Poznan odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Lech Poznan drifted from 12.00 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 14.00 at kick-off, a 16.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BENFICA | DRAW | LECH POZNAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 1.23 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Fri 30 Oct | 1.20 | 8.00 | 14.50 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 1.25 | 8.00 | 14.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 56.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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