Bayer Leverkusen – Marseille odds
Bayer Leverkusen went into the match as heavy favourites against Marseille.
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Bayer Leverkusen – Marseille: closing odds analysis
- Bayer Leverkusen were favourites: the closing odds implied a 69% chance of a home win, 14% for Marseille and 17% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.42 at Bet25, the draw 6.25 at bwin, Marseille 8.00 at 888sport.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 5.00 at the opening to 6.25 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 69% chance of three or more goals and 61% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Bayer Leverkusen or Marseille?
Bayer Leverkusen, by a distance: the closing odds put 55.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Bayer Leverkusen – Marseille?
It depended on the outcome: Bet25 was best on Bayer Leverkusen, bwin on the draw and 888sport on Marseille. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.4%) and Bet25 the least (92.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | BAYER LEVERKUSEN | DRAW | MARSEILLE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.40 | 5.60 | 6.90 | 96.4% |
| Merkur Bets | 1.42 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 96.0% |
| bwin | 1.32 | 6.25 best price | 7.50 | 95.2% |
| Betano | 1.39 | 5.40 | 6.70 | 94.9% |
| Spilhuset | 1.32 | 5.90 | 7.70 | 94.6% |
| ComeOn | 1.35 | 5.75 | 6.93 | 94.4% |
| Betoro | 1.33 | 6.00 | 7.00 | 94.2% |
| Casino House | 1.33 | 6.00 | 7.00 | 94.2% |
| Unibet | 1.37 | 5.30 | 7.00 | 94.2% |
| Stake | 1.38 | 5.40 | 6.40 | 93.8% |
| Betinia | 1.33 | 6.00 | 6.66 | 93.6% |
| CampoBet | 1.33 | 6.00 | 6.66 | 93.6% |
| Expekt | 1.38 | 5.40 | 6.25 | 93.5% |
| LeoVegas | 1.38 | 5.40 | 6.25 | 93.5% |
| GetLucky | 1.33 | 5.69 | 6.87 | 93.2% |
| Casinostuen | 1.33 | 5.69 | 6.87 | 93.2% |
| Oddset | 1.42 best price | 4.75 | 6.25 | 93.0% |
| 888sport | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 best price | 92.9% |
| Mr Green | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 best price | 92.9% |
| SpreadEx | 1.36 | 5.25 | 6.50 | 92.8% |
| Bet25 | 1.42 best price | 4.90 | 5.80 | 92.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.42 | 6.25 | 8.00 | 101.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.30–1.42 · 9.2% | 4.75–6.25 · 31.6% | 5.80–8.00 · 37.9% | 92.5–96.4% |
How did the Bayer Leverkusen – Marseille odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 5.00 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 6.25 at kick-off, a 25.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BAYER LEVERKUSEN | DRAW | MARSEILLE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| Fri 30 Oct | 1.46 | 5.10 | 6.50 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 1.42 | 6.25 | 8.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 60.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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