AZ Alkmaar – Juventus odds
Juventus went into the match as clear favourites against AZ Alkmaar.
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AZ Alkmaar – Juventus: closing odds analysis
- Juventus were favourites: the closing odds implied a 47% chance of an away win, 27% for AZ Alkmaar and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AZ Alkmaar 3.77 at Spilhuset, the draw 3.80 at Betano, Juventus 2.16 at Merkur Bets.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on AZ Alkmaar drifted from 3.50 at the opening to 3.77 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AZ Alkmaar or Juventus?
Juventus, clearly: the closing odds put 20.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AZ Alkmaar – Juventus?
It depended on the outcome: Spilhuset was best on AZ Alkmaar, Betano on the draw and Merkur Bets on Juventus. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.2%) and Mr Green the least (91.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | AZ ALKMAAR | DRAW | JUVENTUS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 3.45 | 3.57 | 2.13 | 96.2% |
| Merkur Bets | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.16 best price | 95.9% |
| Oddset | 3.55 | 3.65 | 2.03 | 95.4% |
| Betano | 3.65 | 3.80 best price | 1.95 | 95.2% |
| Unibet | 3.70 | 3.55 | 2.00 | 95.1% |
| Spilhuset | 3.77 best price | 3.63 | 1.95 | 94.9% |
| ComeOn | 3.67 | 3.76 | 1.92 | 94.4% |
| Betoro | 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.94 | 94.3% |
| Casino House | 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.94 | 94.3% |
| Stake | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.08 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 94.0% |
| Betinia | 3.60 | 3.66 | 1.94 | 93.8% |
| CampoBet | 3.60 | 3.66 | 1.94 | 93.8% |
| SpreadEx | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 93.7% |
| GetLucky | 3.63 | 3.73 | 1.90 | 93.5% |
| Casinostuen | 3.63 | 3.73 | 1.90 | 93.5% |
| Betmaster | 3.60 | 3.45 | 1.98 | 93.2% |
| Expekt | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 93.1% |
| LeoVegas | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.08 | 93.1% |
| Bet25 | 3.50 | 3.70 | 1.91 | 92.6% |
| 888sport | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 91.5% |
| Mr Green | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 91.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.77 | 3.80 | 2.16 | 100.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.25–3.77 · 16.0% | 3.40–3.80 · 11.8% | 1.90–2.16 · 13.7% | 91.5–96.2% |
How did the AZ Alkmaar – Juventus odds move before kick-off?
The best price on AZ Alkmaar drifted from 3.50 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 3.77 at kick-off, a 7.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AZ ALKMAAR | DRAW | JUVENTUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.07 |
| Fri 30 Oct | 3.60 | 3.65 | 2.07 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 3.77 | 3.80 | 2.16 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 56.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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