AGF – Braga odds
Braga went into the match as heavy favourites against AGF.
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AGF – Braga: closing odds analysis
- Braga were favourites: the closing odds implied a 54% chance of an away win, 21% for AGF and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AGF 4.90 at Unibet, the draw 3.90 at Bet25, Braga 1.84 at Casino House.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on AGF drifted from 3.05 at the opening to 4.90 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AGF or Braga?
Braga, by a distance: the closing odds put 33.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AGF – Braga?
It depended on the outcome: Unibet was best on AGF, Bet25 on the draw and Casino House on Braga. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (96.9%) and Betmaster the least (89.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | AGF | DRAW | BRAGA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 4.90 best price | 3.80 | 1.77 | 96.9% |
| Merkur Bets | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.82 | 96.6% |
| VBET | 4.75 | 3.78 | 1.77 | 96.1% |
| Betano | 4.65 | 3.85 | 1.75 | 95.6% |
| Spilhuset | 4.80 | 3.68 | 1.74 | 94.8% |
| Stake | 4.40 | 3.85 | 1.75 | 94.5% |
| SpreadEx | 4.75 | 3.75 | 1.70 | 93.9% |
| LeoVegas | 4.30 | 3.80 | 1.75 | 93.7% |
| Casino House | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.84 best price | 93.3% |
| Expekt | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.77 | 93.1% |
| Casinomoto | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 93.1% |
| Betoro | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 93.1% |
| Bet25 | 4.40 | 3.90 best price | 1.69 | 93.0% |
| Betinia | 4.33 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 92.4% |
| CampoBet | 4.33 | 3.75 | 1.71 | 92.4% |
| ComeOn | 4.66 | 3.81 | 1.65 | 92.3% |
| 888sport | 4.50 | 3.50 | 1.72 | 91.8% |
| Mr Green | 4.50 | 3.50 | 1.72 | 91.8% |
| GetLucky | 4.61 | 3.78 | 1.64 | 91.6% |
| Casinostuen | 4.61 | 3.78 | 1.64 | 91.6% |
| bwin | 4.40 | 3.70 | 1.66 | 90.9% |
| Betmaster | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.70 | 89.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 4.90 | 3.90 | 1.84 | 99.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.00–4.90 · 22.5% | 3.50–3.90 · 11.4% | 1.64–1.84 · 12.2% | 89.9–96.9% |
How did the AGF – Braga odds move before kick-off?
The best price on AGF drifted from 3.05 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 4.90 at kick-off, a 60.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AGF | DRAW | BRAGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 3.65 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 4.90 | 3.90 | 1.84 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 54.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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The odds imply probabilities; they are not predictions. OddsStat is a comparison service, not a bookmaker. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.