AC Milan – Ferencváros odds
AC Milan went into the match as heavy favourites against Ferencváros.
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AC Milan – Ferencváros: closing odds analysis
- AC Milan were favourites: the closing odds implied a 68% chance of a home win, 13% for Ferencváros and 18% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AC Milan 1.44 at Betano, the draw 5.50 at bwin, Ferencváros 9.50 at 888sport.
- Merkur Bets had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Ferencváros shortened from 9.00 at the opening to 7.50 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 63% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AC Milan or Ferencváros?
AC Milan, by a distance: the closing odds put 55.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AC Milan – Ferencváros?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on AC Milan, bwin on the draw and 888sport on Ferencváros. Across all three outcomes Merkur Bets paid out the most (96.2%) and Oddset the least (92.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | AC MILAN | DRAW | FERENCVÁROS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merkur Bets | 1.44 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 96.2% |
| VBET | 1.42 | 5.30 | 6.80 | 96.2% |
| bwin | 1.33 | 5.50 best price | 8.75 | 95.4% |
| Betano | 1.44 best price | 4.85 | 6.70 | 95.2% |
| Unibet | 1.36 | 5.50 best price | 7.50 | 95.2% |
| Spilhuset | 1.40 | 5.10 | 6.90 | 94.8% |
| ComeOn | 1.39 | 5.05 | 7.13 | 94.5% |
| Betoro | 1.38 | 5.33 | 6.66 | 94.1% |
| Casino House | 1.38 | 5.33 | 6.66 | 94.1% |
| Expekt | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.75 | 94.1% |
| Betinia | 1.38 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 93.7% |
| CampoBet | 1.38 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 93.7% |
| Bet25 | 1.40 | 5.20 | 6.20 | 93.6% |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 93.6% |
| SpreadEx | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 93.6% |
| Betmaster | 1.43 | 4.70 | 6.40 | 93.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.38 | 5.00 | 6.87 | 93.4% |
| Casinostuen | 1.37 | 5.00 | 7.07 | 93.3% |
| Casinomoto | 1.33 | 5.33 | 7.50 | 93.2% |
| 888sport | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.50 best price | 93.1% |
| Mr Green | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.50 best price | 93.1% |
| Oddset | 1.31 | 5.25 | 7.75 | 92.3% |
| Stake | 1.41 | 5.00 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 1.44 | 5.50 | 9.50 | 101.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.30–1.44 · 10.8% | 4.70–5.50 · 17.0% | 6.20–9.50 · 53.2% | 92.3–96.2% |
How did the AC Milan – Ferencváros odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Ferencváros shortened from 9.00 when odds opened on 23 Oct to 7.50 at kick-off, a 16.7% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AC MILAN | DRAW | FERENCVÁROS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct (open) | 1.35 | 5.40 | 9.00 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 1.35 | 5.60 | 9.50 |
| Thu 5 Nov (kick-off) | 1.44 | 5.50 | 7.50 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 55.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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The odds imply probabilities; they are not predictions. OddsStat is a comparison service, not a bookmaker. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.