RB Leipzig – Man City odds
Man City went into the match as heavy favourites against RB Leipzig.
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RB Leipzig – Man City: closing odds analysis
- Man City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 61% chance of an away win, 20% for RB Leipzig and 20% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: RB Leipzig 5.40 at Unibet, the draw 5.10 at Unibet, Man City 1.62 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 4.70 at the opening to 5.10 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 73% chance of three or more goals and 69% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, RB Leipzig or Man City?
Man City, by a distance: the closing odds put 40.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on RB Leipzig – Man City?
It depended on the outcome: Unibet was best on RB Leipzig, Unibet on the draw and Betano on Man City. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.9%) and Bet25 the least (89.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | RB LEIPZIG | DRAW | MAN CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 5.00 | 4.90 | 1.62 best price | 97.9% |
| Unibet | 5.40 best price | 5.10 best price | 1.55 | 97.4% |
| VBET | 5.10 | 4.80 | 1.60 | 97.1% |
| Merkur Bets | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.59 | 96.1% |
| Stake | 4.80 | 5.00 | 1.57 | 95.7% |
| ComeOn | 5.25 | 5.05 | 1.52 | 95.6% |
| Oddset | 4.75 | 5.00 | 1.57 | 95.5% |
| Spilhuset | 5.00 | 4.70 | 1.57 | 95.3% |
| Expekt | 4.70 | 4.90 | 1.58 | 95.3% |
| LeoVegas | 4.60 | 4.80 | 1.60 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 4.33 | 5.00 | 1.61 | 95.1% |
| GetLucky | 5.20 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 94.4% |
| Casinostuen | 5.20 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 94.4% |
| bet365 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.57 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 5.00 | 4.60 | 1.55 | 94.1% |
| SpreadEx | 4.75 | 4.60 | 1.57 | 93.9% |
| 888sport | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.53 | 93.0% |
| Mr Green | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.53 | 93.0% |
| Bet25 | 4.10 | 5.00 | 1.48 | 89.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 5.40 | 5.10 | 1.62 | 100.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 4.10–5.40 · 31.7% | 4.50–5.10 · 13.3% | 1.48–1.62 · 9.5% | 89.3–97.9% |
How did the RB Leipzig – Man City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 4.70 when odds opened on 22 Oct to 5.10 at kick-off, a 8.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | RB LEIPZIG | DRAW | MAN CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct (open) | 5.00 | 4.70 | 1.58 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 5.40 | 5.00 | 1.63 |
| Wed 4 Nov (kick-off) | 5.40 | 5.10 | 1.62 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 68.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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