PSV – Club Brugge odds
PSV went into the match as clear favourites against Club Brugge.
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PSV – Club Brugge: closing odds analysis
- PSV were favourites: the closing odds implied a 49% chance of a home win, 29% for Club Brugge and 22% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: PSV 2.05 at bwin, the draw 4.40 at Unibet, Club Brugge 3.60 at Unibet.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.90 at the opening to 4.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 71% chance of three or more goals and 70% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, PSV or Club Brugge?
PSV, clearly: the closing odds put 20.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on PSV – Club Brugge?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on PSV, Unibet on the draw and Unibet on Club Brugge. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.7%) and Bet25 the least (88.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | PSV | DRAW | CLUB BRUGGE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.00 | 4.35 | 3.40 | 97.7% |
| Unibet | 1.92 | 4.40 best price | 3.60 best price | 97.5% |
| VBET | 1.92 | 4.33 | 3.58 | 97.0% |
| Merkur Bets | 1.91 | 4.33 | 3.50 | 96.1% |
| Expekt | 1.92 | 4.30 | 3.40 | 95.5% |
| LeoVegas | 1.92 | 4.30 | 3.40 | 95.5% |
| Oddset | 1.96 | 4.25 | 3.30 | 95.4% |
| Stake | 1.88 | 4.30 | 3.50 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 1.94 | 4.25 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 1.94 | 4.25 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 1.94 | 4.25 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 1.94 | 4.25 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 1.94 | 4.25 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Spilhuset | 1.94 | 4.20 | 3.33 | 94.9% |
| bet365 | 2.00 | 4.33 | 3.00 | 94.0% |
| SpreadEx | 1.87 | 4.20 | 3.40 | 93.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.92 | 4.16 | 3.27 | 93.7% |
| Betmaster | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.25 | 93.4% |
| bwin | 2.05 best price | 4.00 | 3.00 | 93.4% |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.20 | 93.0% |
| Mr Green | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.20 | 93.0% |
| GetLucky | 1.90 | 4.12 | 3.24 | 92.8% |
| Casinostuen | 1.90 | 4.12 | 3.24 | 92.8% |
| Bet25 | 1.82 | 4.20 | 2.95 | 88.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.05 | 4.40 | 3.60 | 100.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.82–2.05 · 12.6% | 4.00–4.40 · 10.0% | 2.95–3.60 · 22.0% | 88.8–97.7% |
How did the PSV – Club Brugge odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.90 when odds opened on 22 Oct to 4.40 at kick-off, a 12.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PSV | DRAW | CLUB BRUGGE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct (open) | 2.24 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| Wed 28 Oct | 2.22 | 4.33 | 3.05 |
| Wed 4 Nov (kick-off) | 2.00 | 4.40 | 3.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 70.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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