AEK Athens – Real Madrid odds
Real Madrid went into the match as heavy favourites against AEK Athens.
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AEK Athens – Real Madrid: closing odds analysis
- Real Madrid were favourites: the closing odds implied a 78% chance of an away win, 9% for AEK Athens and 13% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AEK Athens 13.50 at Betano, the draw 8.20 at VBET, Real Madrid 1.29 at bwin.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 5.20 at the opening to 8.20 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 72% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AEK Athens or Real Madrid?
Real Madrid, by a distance: the closing odds put 69.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AEK Athens – Real Madrid?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on AEK Athens, VBET on the draw and bwin on Real Madrid. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (97.7%) and Bet25 the least (92.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | AEK ATHENS | DRAW | REAL MADRID | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 13.00 | 7.50 | 1.23 | 97.7% |
| Betano | 13.50 best price | 7.00 | 1.24 | 97.7% |
| VBET | 12.00 | 8.20 best price | 1.21 | 96.9% |
| Merkur Bets | 12.00 | 7.50 | 1.22 | 96.6% |
| ComeOn | 11.64 | 7.53 | 1.21 | 95.7% |
| Oddset | 11.50 | 7.50 | 1.21 | 95.5% |
| Spilhuset | 12.00 | 7.20 | 1.21 | 95.4% |
| Expekt | 12.00 | 8.00 | 1.19 | 95.4% |
| SpreadEx | 12.00 | 7.50 | 1.20 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 10.00 | 6.66 | 1.25 | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 10.00 | 6.66 | 1.25 | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 10.00 | 6.66 | 1.25 | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 10.00 | 6.66 | 1.25 | 95.2% |
| Stake | 12.00 | 7.80 | 1.19 | 95.1% |
| bwin | 8.50 | 6.25 | 1.29 best price | 95.0% |
| GetLucky | 11.53 | 7.46 | 1.20 | 94.9% |
| Casinostuen | 11.53 | 7.46 | 1.20 | 94.9% |
| LeoVegas | 12.00 | 7.50 | 1.19 | 94.6% |
| Betmaster | 10.00 | 7.00 | 1.21 | 93.5% |
| 888sport | 10.00 | 6.50 | 1.22 | 93.2% |
| Mr Green | 10.00 | 6.50 | 1.22 | 93.2% |
| Bet25 | 9.40 | 7.40 | 1.19 | 92.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 13.50 | 8.20 | 1.29 | 103.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 8.50–13.50 · 58.8% | 6.25–8.20 · 31.2% | 1.19–1.29 · 8.4% | 92.4–97.7% |
How did the AEK Athens – Real Madrid odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 5.20 when odds opened on 21 Oct to 8.20 at kick-off, a 57.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AEK ATHENS | DRAW | REAL MADRID |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 21 Oct (open) | 10.00 | 5.20 | 1.37 |
| Thu 29 Oct | 8.50 | 6.33 | 1.35 |
| Wed 4 Nov (kick-off) | 13.50 | 8.20 | 1.25 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 54.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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