Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP odds
Sporting CP went into the match as clear favourites against Shakhtar Donetsk.
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Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP: closing odds analysis
- Sporting CP were favourites: the closing odds implied a 45% chance of an away win, 29% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 3.60 at bet365, the draw 3.75 at Betinia, Sporting CP 2.25 at Betano.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Sporting CP drifted from 2.04 at the opening to 2.25 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance of three or more goals and 58% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Shakhtar Donetsk or Sporting CP?
Sporting CP, clearly: the closing odds put 15.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP?
It depended on the outcome: bet365 was best on Shakhtar Donetsk, Betinia on the draw and Betano on Sporting CP. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (97.9%) and Bet25 the least (91.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | SHAKHTAR DONETSK | DRAW | SPORTING CP | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.23 | 97.9% |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.70 | 2.25 best price | 97.8% |
| VBET | 3.40 | 3.55 | 2.20 | 97.1% |
| Merkur Bets | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.07 | 96.2% |
| bet365 | 3.60 best price | 3.70 | 2.00 | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 3.40 | 3.75 best price | 2.05 | 95.4% |
| CampoBet | 3.40 | 3.75 best price | 2.05 | 95.4% |
| Betoro | 3.40 | 3.75 best price | 2.05 | 95.4% |
| Casino House | 3.40 | 3.75 best price | 2.05 | 95.4% |
| Spilhuset | 3.14 | 3.59 | 2.21 | 95.3% |
| Expekt | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 95.3% |
| LeoVegas | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 95.3% |
| ComeOn | 3.17 | 3.62 | 2.18 | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 3.14 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 95.2% |
| Stake | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.12 | 95.1% |
| SpreadEx | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 95.0% |
| GetLucky | 3.14 | 3.58 | 2.16 | 94.3% |
| Casinostuen | 3.14 | 3.58 | 2.16 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.00 | 94.0% |
| Betmaster | 3.15 | 3.40 | 2.18 | 93.4% |
| 888sport | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.15 | 93.2% |
| Mr Green | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.15 | 93.2% |
| Oddset | 3.45 | 3.60 | 1.96 | 92.8% |
| Bet25 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.08 | 91.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.60 | 3.75 | 2.25 | 101.1% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.00–3.60 · 20.0% | 3.40–3.75 · 10.3% | 1.96–2.25 · 14.8% | 91.6–97.9% |
How did the Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Sporting CP drifted from 2.04 when odds opened on 22 Oct to 2.25 at kick-off, a 10.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | SHAKHTAR DONETSK | DRAW | SPORTING CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct (open) | 3.64 | 3.90 | 2.04 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 3.75 | 4.00 | 2.05 |
| Tue 3 Nov (kick-off) | 3.60 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 58.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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