Man Utd – Roma odds
Man Utd went into the match as narrow favourites against Roma.
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Man Utd – Roma: closing odds analysis
- Man Utd were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of a home win, 33% for Roma and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Man Utd 2.37 at Oddset, the draw 4.33 at VBET, Roma 3.05 at Stake.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.60 at the opening to 4.33 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 62% chance of three or more goals and 65% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Man Utd or Roma?
Man Utd, but only just: the closing odds put 11.1 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Man Utd – Roma?
It depended on the outcome: Oddset was best on Man Utd, VBET on the draw and Stake on Roma. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (97.9%) and Bet25 the least (90.3%).
| BOOKMAKER | MAN UTD | DRAW | ROMA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.18 | 4.25 | 3.05 best price | 97.9% |
| Betano | 2.25 | 4.05 | 3.00 | 97.6% |
| VBET | 2.12 | 4.33 best price | 3.05 best price | 97.0% |
| Merkur Bets | 2.16 | 4.00 | 3.05 best price | 96.1% |
| Spilhuset | 2.09 | 4.20 | 3.03 | 95.5% |
| Stake | 2.08 | 4.20 | 3.05 best price | 95.5% |
| Betinia | 2.10 | 4.20 | 3.00 | 95.5% |
| CampoBet | 2.10 | 4.20 | 3.00 | 95.5% |
| Casinomoto | 2.10 | 4.20 | 3.00 | 95.5% |
| Betoro | 2.10 | 4.20 | 3.00 | 95.5% |
| Casino House | 2.10 | 4.20 | 3.00 | 95.5% |
| ComeOn | 2.19 | 3.96 | 2.92 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.37 best price | 3.85 | 2.70 | 95.1% |
| Expekt | 2.12 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 94.8% |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 94.8% |
| bwin | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.75 | 94.7% |
| SpreadEx | 2.10 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 94.4% |
| GetLucky | 2.17 | 3.92 | 2.89 | 94.2% |
| Casinostuen | 2.17 | 3.92 | 2.89 | 94.2% |
| Betmaster | 2.18 | 3.75 | 2.90 | 93.4% |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.62 | 92.3% |
| Mr Green | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.62 | 92.3% |
| Bet25 | 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.50 | 90.3% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.37 | 4.33 | 3.05 | 102.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.08–2.37 · 13.9% | 3.75–4.33 · 15.5% | 2.50–3.05 · 22.0% | 90.3–97.9% |
How did the Man Utd – Roma odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.60 when odds opened on 22 Oct to 4.33 at kick-off, a 20.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MAN UTD | DRAW | ROMA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct (open) | 2.21 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.82 |
| Tue 3 Nov (kick-off) | 2.37 | 4.33 | 3.05 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 64.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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