Derby County – Norwich City odds
Norwich City went into the match as clear favourites against Derby County.
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Derby County – Norwich City: closing odds analysis
- Norwich City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 49% chance of an away win, 26% for Derby County and 25% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Derby County 3.80 at Stake, the draw 3.80 at Bet25, Norwich City 2.05 at bwin.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Derby County drifted from 3.25 at the opening to 3.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance of three or more goals and 59% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Derby County or Norwich City?
Norwich City, clearly: the closing odds put 23.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Derby County – Norwich City?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Derby County, Bet25 on the draw and bwin on Norwich City. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (95.3%) and Betmaster the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | DERBY COUNTY | DRAW | NORWICH CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 3.65 | 3.70 | 1.98 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 3.80 best price | 3.66 | 1.94 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 3.80 best price | 3.66 | 1.94 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 3.80 best price | 3.66 | 1.94 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 3.80 best price | 3.66 | 1.94 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 3.65 | 3.75 | 1.95 | 94.9% |
| SpreadEx | 3.75 | 3.80 best price | 1.91 | 94.9% |
| Stake | 3.80 best price | 3.75 | 1.88 | 94.2% |
| bwin | 3.25 | 3.70 | 2.05 best price | 93.8% |
| Casinomoto | 3.80 best price | 3.60 | 1.90 | 93.7% |
| ComeOn | 3.71 | 3.76 | 1.87 | 93.4% |
| GetLucky | 3.68 | 3.73 | 1.85 | 92.6% |
| Casinostuen | 3.68 | 3.73 | 1.85 | 92.6% |
| Bet25 | 3.45 | 3.80 best price | 1.87 | 91.9% |
| 888sport | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.90 | 91.8% |
| Mr Green | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.90 | 91.8% |
| VBET | 3.47 | 3.65 | 1.86 | 90.9% |
| Betmaster | 3.45 | 3.45 | 1.89 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.05 | 98.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.25–3.80 · 16.9% | 3.45–3.80 · 10.1% | 1.85–2.05 · 10.8% | 90.2–95.3% |
How did the Derby County – Norwich City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Derby County drifted from 3.25 when odds opened on 28 Oct to 3.80 at kick-off, a 16.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | DERBY COUNTY | DRAW | NORWICH CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct (open) | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.12 |
| Sat 31 Oct | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.12 |
| Tue 3 Nov (kick-off) | 3.80 | 3.80 | 2.05 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 58.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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