Barcelona – Aston Villa odds
Barcelona went into the match as heavy favourites against Aston Villa.
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Barcelona – Aston Villa: closing odds analysis
- Barcelona were favourites: the closing odds implied a 74% chance of a home win, 12% for Aston Villa and 14% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Barcelona 1.32 at Betano, the draw 7.50 at Unibet, Aston Villa 9.50 at Unibet.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 98.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 6.80 at the opening to 7.50 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 80% chance of three or more goals and 68% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Barcelona or Aston Villa?
Barcelona, by a distance: the closing odds put 61.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Barcelona – Aston Villa?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Barcelona, Unibet on the draw and Unibet on Aston Villa. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (98.1%) and Bet25 the least (90.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | BARCELONA | DRAW | ASTON VILLA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.28 | 7.50 best price | 9.50 best price | 98.1% |
| Betano | 1.32 best price | 6.90 | 8.00 | 97.3% |
| VBET | 1.30 | 6.80 | 8.70 | 97.0% |
| Oddset | 1.31 | 6.75 | 7.75 | 96.1% |
| Merkur Bets | 1.31 | 6.50 | 8.00 | 95.8% |
| ComeOn | 1.29 | 6.93 | 7.92 | 95.6% |
| Spilhuset | 1.28 | 6.80 | 8.30 | 95.3% |
| Stake | 1.28 | 7.00 | 8.00 | 95.3% |
| Expekt | 1.30 | 6.75 | 7.50 | 95.2% |
| LeoVegas | 1.30 | 6.75 | 7.50 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 1.28 | 6.50 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.28 | 6.50 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.28 | 6.50 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.28 | 6.50 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.28 | 6.50 | 8.50 | 95.0% |
| GetLucky | 1.28 | 6.87 | 7.85 | 94.9% |
| Casinostuen | 1.28 | 6.87 | 7.85 | 94.9% |
| SpreadEx | 1.29 | 6.50 | 8.00 | 94.7% |
| bet365 | 1.25 | 7.50 best price | 8.00 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 1.28 | 6.50 | 7.50 | 93.6% |
| Betmaster | 1.27 | 6.51 | 7.75 | 93.5% |
| 888sport | 1.28 | 6.00 | 7.50 | 92.5% |
| Mr Green | 1.28 | 6.00 | 7.50 | 92.5% |
| Bet25 | 1.25 | 7.00 | 6.00 | 90.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.32 | 7.50 | 9.50 | 100.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.25–1.32 · 5.6% | 6.00–7.50 · 25.0% | 6.00–9.50 · 58.3% | 90.1–98.1% |
How did the Barcelona – Aston Villa odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 6.80 when odds opened on 22 Oct to 7.50 at kick-off, a 10.3% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BARCELONA | DRAW | ASTON VILLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct (open) | 1.29 | 6.80 | 8.75 |
| Wed 28 Oct | 1.26 | 7.40 | 11.00 |
| Tue 3 Nov (kick-off) | 1.32 | 7.50 | 9.50 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 68.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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