Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich odds
Bayern Munich went into the match as clear favourites against Atlético Madrid.
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Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich: closing odds analysis
- Bayern Munich were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of an away win, 32% for Atlético Madrid and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Atlético Madrid 3.28 at VBET, the draw 4.05 at Betano, Bayern Munich 2.45 at bet365.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.6%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Bayern Munich drifted from 2.00 at the opening to 2.45 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 66% chance of three or more goals and 67% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Atlético Madrid or Bayern Munich?
Bayern Munich, clearly: the closing odds put 12.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Atlético Madrid, Betano on the draw and bet365 on Bayern Munich. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (97.6%) and Bet25 the least (89.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | ATLÉTICO MADRID | DRAW | BAYERN MUNICH | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 3.10 | 3.95 | 2.23 | 97.6% |
| Betano | 3.10 | 4.05 best price | 2.18 | 97.3% |
| VBET | 3.28 best price | 3.87 | 2.14 | 97.0% |
| Merkur Bets | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.08 | 95.9% |
| Oddset | 3.05 | 3.95 | 2.16 | 95.8% |
| Spilhuset | 3.10 | 3.89 | 2.13 | 95.3% |
| Stake | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.05 | 95.2% |
| bet365 | 2.55 | 4.00 | 2.45 best price | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.14 | 95.2% |
| Expekt | 3.15 | 3.95 | 2.08 | 95.1% |
| LeoVegas | 3.10 | 3.95 | 2.10 | 95.1% |
| ComeOn | 3.02 | 3.91 | 2.15 | 95.1% |
| SpreadEx | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.10 | 94.8% |
| GetLucky | 2.99 | 3.88 | 2.13 | 94.2% |
| Casinostuen | 2.99 | 3.88 | 2.13 | 94.2% |
| bwin | 2.65 | 3.80 | 2.35 | 93.8% |
| 888sport | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 92.8% |
| Mr Green | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 92.8% |
| Bet25 | 2.75 | 3.85 | 2.04 | 89.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.28 | 4.05 | 2.45 | 104.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.55–3.28 · 28.6% | 3.60–4.05 · 12.5% | 2.04–2.45 · 20.1% | 89.8–97.6% |
How did the Atlético Madrid – Bayern Munich odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Bayern Munich drifted from 2.00 when odds opened on 22 Oct to 2.45 at kick-off, a 22.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ATLÉTICO MADRID | DRAW | BAYERN MUNICH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct (open) | 3.30 | 4.10 | 2.00 |
| Wed 28 Oct | 3.40 | 4.20 | 2.05 |
| Tue 3 Nov (kick-off) | 3.28 | 4.05 | 2.45 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 66.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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