Newcastle – Everton odds
Newcastle went into the match as clear favourites against Everton.
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Newcastle – Everton: closing odds analysis
- Newcastle were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of a home win, 29% for Everton and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Newcastle 2.30 at bet365, the draw 3.65 at Unibet, Everton 3.42 at ComeOn.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Newcastle drifted from 2.15 at the opening to 2.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance of three or more goals and 59% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Newcastle or Everton?
Newcastle, clearly: the closing odds put 15.0 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Newcastle – Everton?
It depended on the outcome: bet365 was best on Newcastle, Unibet on the draw and ComeOn on Everton. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.4%) and Bet25 the least (90.9%).
| BOOKMAKER | NEWCASTLE | DRAW | EVERTON | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.55 | 3.40 | 97.4% |
| Unibet | 2.18 | 3.65 best price | 3.35 | 97.0% |
| ComeOn | 2.16 | 3.52 | 3.42 best price | 96.2% |
| VBET | 2.18 | 3.51 | 3.37 | 96.1% |
| Merkur Bets | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 95.9% |
| bet365 | 2.30 best price | 3.50 | 3.10 | 95.9% |
| Spilhuset | 2.22 | 3.57 | 3.18 | 95.7% |
| Stake | 2.12 | 3.55 | 3.40 | 95.5% |
| GetLucky | 2.14 | 3.48 | 3.38 | 95.2% |
| Casinostuen | 2.14 | 3.48 | 3.38 | 95.2% |
| Expekt | 2.12 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 95.1% |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 94.9% |
| CampoBet | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 94.9% |
| Casinomoto | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 94.9% |
| Betoro | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 94.9% |
| Casino House | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 94.9% |
| Oddset | 2.14 | 3.45 | 3.35 | 94.7% |
| bwin | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 94.7% |
| SpreadEx | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 94.1% |
| Betmaster | 2.14 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 93.2% |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 93.0% |
| Mr Green | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 93.0% |
| Bet25 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.85 | 90.9% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.30 | 3.65 | 3.42 | 99.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.10–2.30 · 9.5% | 3.30–3.65 · 10.6% | 2.85–3.42 · 20.0% | 90.9–97.4% |
How did the Newcastle – Everton odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Newcastle drifted from 2.15 when odds opened on 18 Oct to 2.30 at kick-off, a 7.0% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | NEWCASTLE | DRAW | EVERTON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct (open) | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Mon 26 Oct | 2.27 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| Mon 2 Nov (kick-off) | 2.30 | 3.65 | 3.42 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 58.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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