Union Berlin – 1. FC Köln odds
Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln went into the match almost level in the odds.
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Union Berlin – 1. FC Köln: closing odds analysis
- No clear favourite: the closing odds implied 36% for Union Berlin, 27% for a draw and 37% for 1. FC Köln.
- Best closing odds: Union Berlin 2.74 at VBET, the draw 3.60 at Betinia, 1. FC Köln 2.70 at Betano.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Union Berlin drifted from 2.60 at the opening to 2.74 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 56% chance of three or more goals and 60% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Union Berlin or 1. FC Köln?
Neither side, really: the closing odds put only 0.8 percentage points between Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Union Berlin – 1. FC Köln?
It depended on the outcome: VBET was best on Union Berlin, Betinia on the draw and Betano on 1. FC Köln. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.8%) and Bet25 the least (90.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | UNION BERLIN | DRAW | 1. FC KÖLN | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.60 best price | 2.70 best price | 97.8% |
| VBET | 2.74 best price | 3.40 | 2.62 | 96.1% |
| ComeOn | 2.62 | 3.52 | 2.62 | 95.5% |
| Betinia | 2.60 | 3.60 best price | 2.57 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 2.60 | 3.60 best price | 2.57 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 2.60 | 3.60 best price | 2.57 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.60 | 3.60 best price | 2.57 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.60 | 3.60 best price | 2.57 | 95.1% |
| Stake | 2.70 | 3.55 | 2.50 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.60 | 94.8% |
| GetLucky | 2.60 | 3.48 | 2.60 | 94.6% |
| Casinostuen | 2.60 | 3.48 | 2.60 | 94.6% |
| bet365 | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.55 | 94.6% |
| bwin | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 94.1% |
| 888sport | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 92.7% |
| Mr Green | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 92.7% |
| Bet25 | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 90.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.74 | 3.60 | 2.70 | 98.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.45–2.74 · 11.8% | 3.40–3.60 · 5.9% | 2.45–2.70 · 10.2% | 90.7–97.8% |
How did the Union Berlin – 1. FC Köln odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Union Berlin drifted from 2.60 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 2.74 at kick-off, a 5.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | UNION BERLIN | DRAW | 1. FC KÖLN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.72 |
| Mon 26 Oct | 2.57 | 3.70 | 2.72 |
| Sun 1 Nov (kick-off) | 2.74 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 59.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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