Lazio – Cagliari odds
Lazio went into the match as heavy favourites against Cagliari.
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Lazio – Cagliari: closing odds analysis
- Lazio were favourites: the closing odds implied a 64% chance of a home win, 14% for Cagliari and 21% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lazio 1.51 at bwin, the draw 4.60 at Stake, Cagliari 7.00 at Betinia.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Cagliari drifted from 6.60 at the opening to 7.00 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 51% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lazio or Cagliari?
Lazio, by a distance: the closing odds put 49.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lazio – Cagliari?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on Lazio, Stake on the draw and Betinia on Cagliari. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.3%) and Mr Green the least (91.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | LAZIO | DRAW | CAGLIARI | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.49 | 4.50 | 6.90 | 96.3% |
| Oddset | 1.49 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 95.5% |
| Betinia | 1.46 | 4.50 | 7.00 best price | 95.2% |
| CampoBet | 1.46 | 4.50 | 7.00 best price | 95.2% |
| Casinomoto | 1.46 | 4.50 | 7.00 best price | 95.2% |
| Betoro | 1.46 | 4.50 | 7.00 best price | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 1.50 | 4.33 | 6.50 | 95.1% |
| Stake | 1.48 | 4.60 best price | 6.20 | 94.8% |
| bet365 | 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.25 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 1.51 best price | 4.50 | 5.75 | 94.5% |
| ComeOn | 1.45 | 4.56 | 6.64 | 94.4% |
| Betmaster | 1.49 | 4.20 | 6.20 | 93.4% |
| GetLucky | 1.43 | 4.51 | 6.57 | 93.2% |
| Casinostuen | 1.43 | 4.51 | 6.57 | 93.2% |
| Bet25 | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.80 | 91.4% |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | 91.1% |
| Mr Green | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | 91.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.51 | 4.60 | 7.00 | 97.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.43–1.51 · 5.6% | 4.00–4.60 · 15.0% | 5.75–7.00 · 21.7% | 91.1–96.3% |
How did the Lazio – Cagliari odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Cagliari drifted from 6.60 when odds opened on 25 Oct to 7.00 at kick-off, a 6.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LAZIO | DRAW | CAGLIARI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct (open) | 1.53 | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| Wed 28 Oct | 1.60 | 4.70 | 7.50 |
| Sun 1 Nov (kick-off) | 1.53 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 50.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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