Elche – Valencia odds
Elche went into the match as narrow favourites against Valencia.
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Elche – Valencia: closing odds analysis
- Elche were favourites: the closing odds implied a 41% chance of a home win, 30% for Valencia and 29% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Elche 2.38 at Unibet, the draw 3.50 at Stake, Valencia 3.47 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.8%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Valencia drifted from 2.87 at the opening to 3.47 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 49% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Elche or Valencia?
Elche, but only just: the closing odds put 11.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Elche – Valencia?
It depended on the outcome: Unibet was best on Elche, Stake on the draw and VBET on Valencia. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.8%) and Bet25 the least (90.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | ELCHE | DRAW | VALENCIA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 97.8% |
| VBET | 2.23 | 3.31 | 3.47 best price | 96.3% |
| Spilhuset | 2.33 | 3.18 | 3.33 | 95.8% |
| Merkur Bets | 2.27 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 95.5% |
| Expekt | 2.38 | 3.35 | 3.05 | 95.5% |
| LeoVegas | 2.38 | 3.35 | 3.05 | 95.5% |
| Betinia | 2.33 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 2.33 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 95.3% |
| Casinomoto | 2.33 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 2.33 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 95.3% |
| Stake | 2.19 | 3.50 best price | 3.25 | 95.2% |
| Casino House | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 95.1% |
| bet365 | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 95.0% |
| Unibet | 2.38 best price | 3.30 | 3.00 | 94.6% |
| ComeOn | 2.26 | 3.37 | 3.12 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 94.2% |
| SpreadEx | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 93.9% |
| GetLucky | 2.24 | 3.34 | 3.09 | 93.5% |
| Casinostuen | 2.24 | 3.34 | 3.09 | 93.5% |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 93.5% |
| Mr Green | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 93.5% |
| Betmaster | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.05 | 93.2% |
| Bet25 | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 90.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.38 | 3.50 | 3.47 | 100.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.19–2.38 · 8.7% | 3.18–3.50 · 10.1% | 2.90–3.47 · 19.7% | 90.7–97.8% |
How did the Elche – Valencia odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Valencia drifted from 2.87 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 3.47 at kick-off, a 20.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ELCHE | DRAW | VALENCIA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.87 |
| Mon 26 Oct | 2.60 | 3.45 | 2.85 |
| Sun 1 Nov (kick-off) | 2.38 | 3.50 | 3.47 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 55.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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