Athletic Club – Real Sociedad odds
Athletic Club went into the match as clear favourites against Real Sociedad.
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Athletic Club – Real Sociedad: closing odds analysis
- Athletic Club were favourites: the closing odds implied a 47% chance of a home win, 26% for Real Sociedad and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Athletic Club 2.08 at Betinia, the draw 3.80 at Merkur Bets, Real Sociedad 3.89 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.7%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Athletic Club drifted from 1.98 at the opening to 2.08 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 53% chance of three or more goals and 56% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Athletic Club or Real Sociedad?
Athletic Club, clearly: the closing odds put 20.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Athletic Club – Real Sociedad?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Athletic Club, Merkur Bets on the draw and VBET on Real Sociedad. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.7%) and Bet25 the least (90.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | ATHLETIC CLUB | DRAW | REAL SOCIEDAD | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.75 | 3.65 | 97.7% |
| Merkur Bets | 2.04 | 3.80 best price | 3.60 | 97.0% |
| VBET | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.89 best price | 96.1% |
| Spilhuset | 1.98 | 3.62 | 3.78 | 95.6% |
| Expekt | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 95.4% |
| LeoVegas | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 95.4% |
| Casino House | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.60 | 95.1% |
| ComeOn | 1.99 | 3.66 | 3.62 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 2.08 best price | 3.50 | 3.50 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 2.08 best price | 3.50 | 3.50 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 2.08 best price | 3.50 | 3.50 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 2.08 best price | 3.50 | 3.50 | 95.0% |
| bet365 | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 94.7% |
| Unibet | 2.04 | 3.40 | 3.65 | 94.5% |
| bwin | 1.93 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 94.5% |
| Casinostuen | 1.98 | 3.63 | 3.58 | 94.4% |
| GetLucky | 1.97 | 3.63 | 3.58 | 94.1% |
| SpreadEx | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 94.0% |
| Betmaster | 2.01 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 93.5% |
| 888sport | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 93.3% |
| Mr Green | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 93.3% |
| Bet25 | 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.30 | 90.0% |
| Stake | 1.90 | 3.75 | — | — |
| BEST PRICE | 2.08 | 3.80 | 3.89 | 99.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.90–2.08 · 9.5% | 3.40–3.80 · 11.8% | 3.30–3.89 · 17.9% | 90.0–97.7% |
How did the Athletic Club – Real Sociedad odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Athletic Club drifted from 1.98 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 2.08 at kick-off, a 5.1% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ATHLETIC CLUB | DRAW | REAL SOCIEDAD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 1.98 | 3.65 | 3.90 |
| Mon 26 Oct | 2.15 | 3.65 | 3.60 |
| Sun 1 Nov (kick-off) | 2.08 | 3.80 | 3.89 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 56.4%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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