Troyes – Le Mans odds
Troyes went into the match as clear favourites against Le Mans.
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Troyes – Le Mans: closing odds analysis
- Troyes were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of a home win, 29% for Le Mans and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Troyes 2.33 at Casino House, the draw 3.60 at Casino House, Le Mans 3.40 at Betinia.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Troyes drifted from 2.19 at the opening to 2.33 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 49% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Troyes or Le Mans?
Troyes, clearly: the closing odds put 13.6 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Troyes – Le Mans?
It depended on the outcome: Casino House was best on Troyes, Casino House on the draw and Betinia on Le Mans. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.2%) and Bet25 the least (91.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | TROYES | DRAW | LE MANS | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 2.30 | 3.33 | 3.28 | 96.2% |
| Stake | 2.24 | 3.45 | 3.20 | 95.3% |
| Betinia | 2.16 | 3.40 | 3.40 best price | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 2.16 | 3.40 | 3.40 best price | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 2.16 | 3.40 | 3.40 best price | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.16 | 3.40 | 3.40 best price | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.33 best price | 3.60 best price | 2.90 | 95.1% |
| SpreadEx | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 94.8% |
| bwin | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 94.3% |
| bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 94.2% |
| ComeOn | 2.20 | 3.32 | 3.17 | 93.4% |
| Betmaster | 2.24 | 3.20 | 3.15 | 92.9% |
| Oddset | 2.11 | 3.50 | 3.15 | 92.8% |
| GetLucky | 2.18 | 3.29 | 3.14 | 92.5% |
| Casinostuen | 2.18 | 3.29 | 3.14 | 92.5% |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 92.1% |
| Mr Green | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 92.1% |
| Bet25 | 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.05 | 91.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.33 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 99.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.08–2.33 · 12.0% | 3.20–3.60 · 12.5% | 2.90–3.40 · 17.2% | 91.7–96.2% |
How did the Troyes – Le Mans odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Troyes drifted from 2.19 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 2.33 at kick-off, a 6.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | TROYES | DRAW | LE MANS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 2.19 | 3.55 | 3.33 |
| Sun 25 Oct | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.33 |
| Sat 31 Oct (kick-off) | 2.33 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 54.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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