Millwall – Derby County odds
Millwall went into the match as heavy favourites against Derby County.
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Millwall – Derby County: closing odds analysis
- Millwall were favourites: the closing odds implied a 57% chance of a home win, 19% for Derby County and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Millwall 1.70 at Betinia, the draw 4.10 at Bet25, Derby County 5.30 at Betano.
- Betinia had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Derby County drifted from 4.50 at the opening to 5.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 52% chance of three or more goals and 51% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Millwall or Derby County?
Millwall, by a distance: the closing odds put 38.5 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Millwall – Derby County?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Millwall, Bet25 on the draw and Betano on Derby County. Across all three outcomes Betinia paid out the most (95.4%) and Betmaster the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | MILLWALL | DRAW | DERBY COUNTY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betinia | 1.70 best price | 4.00 | 4.75 | 95.4% |
| CampoBet | 1.70 best price | 4.00 | 4.75 | 95.4% |
| Betoro | 1.70 best price | 4.00 | 4.75 | 95.4% |
| Casino House | 1.70 best price | 4.00 | 4.75 | 95.4% |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.30 best price | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 94.7% |
| bwin | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.25 | 94.5% |
| Stake | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.20 | 94.4% |
| SpreadEx | 1.61 | 4.00 | 5.25 | 94.4% |
| Bet25 | 1.62 | 4.10 best price | 4.80 | 93.5% |
| ComeOn | 1.60 | 3.96 | 5.05 | 93.0% |
| GetLucky | 1.59 | 3.93 | 5.01 | 92.3% |
| Casinostuen | 1.59 | 3.93 | 5.01 | 92.3% |
| 888sport | 1.61 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 92.2% |
| Mr Green | 1.61 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 92.2% |
| VBET | 1.59 | 3.75 | 4.90 | 90.9% |
| Betmaster | 1.60 | 3.70 | 4.70 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.70 | 4.10 | 5.30 | 98.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.59–1.70 · 6.9% | 3.70–4.10 · 10.8% | 4.70–5.30 · 12.8% | 90.2–95.4% |
How did the Millwall – Derby County odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Derby County drifted from 4.50 when odds opened on 24 Oct to 5.30 at kick-off, a 17.8% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MILLWALL | DRAW | DERBY COUNTY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct (open) | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| Sat 31 Oct (kick-off) | 1.70 | 4.10 | 5.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 51.2%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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