Man City – Brighton odds
Man City went into the match as heavy favourites against Brighton.
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Man City – Brighton: closing odds analysis
- Man City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 56% chance of a home win, 22% for Brighton and 23% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Man City 1.78 at Betano, the draw 4.40 at Bet25, Brighton 4.75 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Brighton shortened from 5.60 at the opening to 4.75 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 62% chance of three or more goals and 61% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Man City or Brighton?
Man City, by a distance: the closing odds put 33.8 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Man City – Brighton?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Man City, Bet25 on the draw and VBET on Brighton. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.9%) and Mr Green the least (91.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | MAN CITY | DRAW | BRIGHTON | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.78 best price | 4.30 | 4.40 | 97.9% |
| Unibet | 1.73 | 4.30 | 4.70 | 97.7% |
| VBET | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.75 best price | 96.4% |
| Merkur Bets | 1.76 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 96.4% |
| ComeOn | 1.69 | 4.36 | 4.56 | 96.1% |
| Spilhuset | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 95.5% |
| Expekt | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 95.4% |
| LeoVegas | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 95.4% |
| GetLucky | 1.68 | 4.32 | 4.51 | 95.4% |
| Casinostuen | 1.68 | 4.32 | 4.51 | 95.4% |
| SpreadEx | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.40 | 95.4% |
| Stake | 1.67 | 4.30 | 4.60 | 95.4% |
| Betinia | 1.72 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 1.72 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 1.72 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 1.72 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 1.72 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 1.72 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 95.1% |
| bet365 | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.33 | 94.6% |
| bwin | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.50 | 94.2% |
| Betmaster | 1.72 | 3.93 | 4.21 | 93.2% |
| Bet25 | 1.64 | 4.40 best price | 4.10 | 92.5% |
| 888sport | 1.66 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 91.7% |
| Mr Green | 1.66 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 91.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.78 | 4.40 | 4.75 | 100.0% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.64–1.78 · 8.5% | 3.93–4.40 · 12.0% | 4.10–4.75 · 15.9% | 91.7–97.9% |
How did the Man City – Brighton odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Brighton shortened from 5.60 when odds opened on 17 Oct to 4.75 at kick-off, a 15.2% drop.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | MAN CITY | DRAW | BRIGHTON |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct (open) | 1.55 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| Sat 24 Oct | 1.72 | 4.75 | 5.00 |
| Sat 31 Oct (kick-off) | 1.78 | 4.40 | 4.75 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 61.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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