Lincoln City – Birmingham City odds
Birmingham City went into the match as clear favourites against Lincoln City.
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Lincoln City – Birmingham City: closing odds analysis
- Birmingham City were favourites: the closing odds implied a 44% chance of an away win, 29% for Lincoln City and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Lincoln City 3.40 at Betinia, the draw 3.50 at Bet25, Birmingham City 2.20 at bwin.
- Betinia had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Lincoln City drifted from 3.25 at the opening to 3.40 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 50% chance of three or more goals and 53% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Lincoln City or Birmingham City?
Birmingham City, clearly: the closing odds put 14.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Lincoln City – Birmingham City?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Lincoln City, Bet25 on the draw and bwin on Birmingham City. Across all three outcomes Betinia paid out the most (95.1%) and Betmaster the least (90.2%).
| BOOKMAKER | LINCOLN CITY | DRAW | BIRMINGHAM CITY | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betinia | 3.40 best price | 3.40 | 2.16 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 3.40 best price | 3.40 | 2.16 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 3.40 best price | 3.40 | 2.16 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 3.40 best price | 3.40 | 2.16 | 95.1% |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.18 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.20 best price | 94.7% |
| SpreadEx | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.15 | 94.1% |
| Casinomoto | 3.33 | 3.40 | 2.12 | 93.8% |
| Stake | 3.15 | 3.40 | 2.20 best price | 93.8% |
| ComeOn | 3.27 | 3.42 | 2.12 | 93.5% |
| bwin | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.20 best price | 93.5% |
| Bet25 | 3.15 | 3.50 best price | 2.12 | 93.0% |
| GetLucky | 3.24 | 3.39 | 2.10 | 92.6% |
| Casinostuen | 3.24 | 3.39 | 2.10 | 92.6% |
| 888sport | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.10 | 91.6% |
| Mr Green | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.10 | 91.6% |
| VBET | 3.06 | 3.21 | 2.16 | 90.8% |
| Betmaster | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.11 | 90.2% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 96.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.06–3.40 · 11.1% | 3.20–3.50 · 9.4% | 2.10–2.20 · 4.8% | 90.2–95.1% |
How did the Lincoln City – Birmingham City odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Lincoln City drifted from 3.25 when odds opened on 24 Oct to 3.40 at kick-off, a 4.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | LINCOLN CITY | DRAW | BIRMINGHAM CITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct (open) | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.21 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Sat 31 Oct (kick-off) | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 53.1%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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