Chelsea – Man Utd odds
Chelsea went into the match as clear favourites against Man Utd.
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Chelsea – Man Utd: closing odds analysis
- Chelsea were favourites: the closing odds implied a 45% chance of a home win, 29% for Man Utd and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Chelsea 2.30 at SpreadEx, the draw 3.90 at Betano, Man Utd 3.50 at Betano.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Chelsea drifted from 2.10 at the opening to 2.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance of three or more goals and 62% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Chelsea or Man Utd?
Chelsea, clearly: the closing odds put 15.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Chelsea – Man Utd?
It depended on the outcome: SpreadEx was best on Chelsea, Betano on the draw and Betano on Man Utd. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (97.9%) and Bet25 the least (92.5%).
| BOOKMAKER | CHELSEA | DRAW | MAN UTD | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.23 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 97.9% |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.90 best price | 3.50 best price | 97.5% |
| ComeOn | 2.09 | 3.81 | 3.37 | 96.4% |
| VBET | 2.23 | 3.68 | 3.13 | 96.2% |
| Merkur Bets | 2.30 best price | 3.60 | 3.05 | 96.1% |
| Spilhuset | 2.25 | 3.58 | 3.11 | 95.7% |
| GetLucky | 2.07 | 3.78 | 3.34 | 95.5% |
| Casinostuen | 2.07 | 3.78 | 3.34 | 95.5% |
| Betinia | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| CampoBet | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| Casinomoto | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| Betoro | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| Casino House | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.40 | 95.4% |
| Stake | 2.18 | 3.70 | 3.10 | 95.1% |
| Expekt | 2.25 | 3.65 | 3.00 | 95.1% |
| LeoVegas | 2.25 | 3.65 | 3.00 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.12 | 3.65 | 3.25 | 94.9% |
| SpreadEx | 2.30 best price | 3.50 | 3.00 | 94.9% |
| bwin | 2.20 | 3.70 | 3.00 | 94.5% |
| Betmaster | 2.09 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 93.3% |
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 92.9% |
| Mr Green | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 92.9% |
| Bet25 | 2.02 | 3.80 | 3.10 | 92.5% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.30 | 3.90 | 3.50 | 102.4% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.02–2.30 · 13.9% | 3.50–3.90 · 11.4% | 3.00–3.50 · 16.7% | 92.5–97.9% |
How did the Chelsea – Man Utd odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Chelsea drifted from 2.10 when odds opened on 18 Oct to 2.30 at kick-off, a 9.5% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | CHELSEA | DRAW | MAN UTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct (open) | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| Sun 25 Oct | 2.00 | 4.05 | 4.05 |
| Sat 31 Oct (kick-off) | 2.30 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 61.9%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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