Burnley – Portsmouth odds
Burnley went into the match as clear favourites against Portsmouth.
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Burnley – Portsmouth: closing odds analysis
- Burnley were favourites: the closing odds implied a 43% chance of a home win, 29% for Portsmouth and 28% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Burnley 2.36 at Betinia, the draw 3.45 at Stake, Portsmouth 3.40 at bwin.
- CampoBet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Burnley drifted from 2.10 at the opening to 2.36 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 48% chance of three or more goals and 55% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Burnley or Portsmouth?
Burnley, clearly: the closing odds put 14.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Burnley – Portsmouth?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on Burnley, Stake on the draw and bwin on Portsmouth. Across all three outcomes CampoBet paid out the most (95.1%) and Betmaster the least (90.1%).
| BOOKMAKER | BURNLEY | DRAW | PORTSMOUTH | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CampoBet | 2.22 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.22 | 3.33 | 3.33 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 2.36 best price | 3.40 | 3.00 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.36 best price | 3.40 | 3.00 | 95.1% |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 95.1% |
| SpreadEx | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.40 best price | 94.9% |
| Oddset | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 94.7% |
| Stake | 2.12 | 3.45 best price | 3.35 | 94.3% |
| bwin | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 best price | 93.9% |
| ComeOn | 2.14 | 3.37 | 3.27 | 93.5% |
| Bet25 | 2.14 | 3.40 | 3.15 | 92.7% |
| GetLucky | 2.12 | 3.34 | 3.24 | 92.6% |
| Casinostuen | 2.12 | 3.34 | 3.24 | 92.6% |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 92.1% |
| Mr Green | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 92.1% |
| VBET | 2.07 | 3.27 | 3.21 | 90.9% |
| Betmaster | 2.13 | 3.10 | 3.15 | 90.1% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.36 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 99.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.07–2.36 · 14.0% | 3.10–3.45 · 11.3% | 3.00–3.40 · 13.3% | 90.1–95.1% |
How did the Burnley – Portsmouth odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Burnley drifted from 2.10 when odds opened on 24 Oct to 2.36 at kick-off, a 12.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BURNLEY | DRAW | PORTSMOUTH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct (open) | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 2.12 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Sat 31 Oct (kick-off) | 2.36 | 3.45 | 3.40 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 54.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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