Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund odds
Bayern Munich went into the match as heavy favourites against Borussia Dortmund.
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Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund: closing odds analysis
- Bayern Munich were favourites: the closing odds implied a 70% chance of a home win, 14% for Borussia Dortmund and 16% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Bayern Munich 1.37 at Betano, the draw 6.34 at ComeOn, Borussia Dortmund 8.30 at VBET.
- Betano had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Borussia Dortmund drifted from 7.40 at the opening to 8.30 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 64% chance that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund?
Bayern Munich, by a distance: the closing odds put 56.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Bayern Munich, ComeOn on the draw and VBET on Borussia Dortmund. Across all three outcomes Betano paid out the most (97.4%) and Mr Green the least (90.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | BAYERN MUNICH | DRAW | BORUSSIA DORTMUND | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 1.37 best price | 6.20 | 7.40 | 97.4% |
| VBET | 1.34 | 5.90 | 8.30 best price | 96.5% |
| bet365 | 1.33 | 6.00 | 8.00 | 95.8% |
| ComeOn | 1.32 | 6.34 best price | 7.43 | 95.2% |
| Stake | 1.33 | 6.20 | 7.20 | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 1.36 | 6.00 | 6.66 | 95.0% |
| CampoBet | 1.36 | 6.00 | 6.66 | 95.0% |
| Casinomoto | 1.36 | 6.00 | 6.66 | 95.0% |
| Betoro | 1.36 | 6.00 | 6.66 | 95.0% |
| Casino House | 1.36 | 6.00 | 6.66 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 1.36 | 5.75 | 6.75 | 94.6% |
| GetLucky | 1.30 | 6.28 | 7.36 | 94.0% |
| Casinostuen | 1.30 | 6.28 | 7.36 | 94.0% |
| Oddset | 1.33 | 5.75 | 6.75 | 93.1% |
| Bet25 | 1.30 | 6.20 | 5.80 | 90.7% |
| 888sport | 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 90.4% |
| Mr Green | 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 90.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.37 | 6.34 | 8.30 | 99.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.30–1.37 · 5.4% | 5.00–6.34 · 26.8% | 5.80–8.30 · 43.1% | 90.4–97.4% |
How did the Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Borussia Dortmund drifted from 7.40 when odds opened on 18 Oct to 8.30 at kick-off, a 12.2% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | BAYERN MUNICH | DRAW | BORUSSIA DORTMUND |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct (open) | 1.35 | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| Sat 24 Oct | 1.37 | 6.20 | 7.70 |
| Sat 31 Oct (kick-off) | 1.37 | 6.34 | 8.30 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Both teams to score was priced at 63.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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