Aston Villa – Fulham odds
Aston Villa went into the match as clear favourites against Fulham.
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Aston Villa – Fulham: closing odds analysis
- Aston Villa were favourites: the closing odds implied a 47% chance of a home win, 27% for Fulham and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Aston Villa 2.12 at Betano, the draw 3.80 at Stake, Fulham 3.80 at VBET.
- Unibet had the highest closing payout on the match result: 97.9%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.50 at the opening to 3.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance of three or more goals and 59% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Aston Villa or Fulham?
Aston Villa, clearly: the closing odds put 19.7 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Aston Villa – Fulham?
It depended on the outcome: Betano was best on Aston Villa, Stake on the draw and VBET on Fulham. Across all three outcomes Unibet paid out the most (97.9%) and Mr Green the least (92.0%).
| BOOKMAKER | ASTON VILLA | DRAW | FULHAM | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.08 | 3.65 | 3.75 | 97.9% |
| Betano | 2.12 best price | 3.70 | 3.55 | 97.7% |
| Merkur Bets | 1.99 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 95.9% |
| Spilhuset | 2.06 | 3.57 | 3.57 | 95.6% |
| ComeOn | 2.02 | 3.66 | 3.57 | 95.4% |
| Stake | 1.92 | 3.80 best price | 3.75 | 95.2% |
| VBET | 1.96 | 3.60 | 3.80 best price | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 95.1% |
| Expekt | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 95.1% |
| LeoVegas | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 95.1% |
| bet365 | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 95.1% |
| Oddset | 2.11 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 94.9% |
| SpreadEx | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.75 | 94.6% |
| GetLucky | 2.00 | 3.63 | 3.53 | 94.4% |
| Casinostuen | 2.00 | 3.63 | 3.53 | 94.4% |
| bwin | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 94.3% |
| Betmaster | 2.11 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 93.4% |
| Bet25 | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.35 | 93.2% |
| 888sport | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 92.0% |
| Mr Green | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 92.0% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.12 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 100.2% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.92–2.12 · 10.4% | 3.30–3.80 · 15.2% | 3.25–3.80 · 16.9% | 92.0–97.9% |
How did the Aston Villa – Fulham odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.50 when odds opened on 18 Oct to 3.80 at kick-off, a 8.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | ASTON VILLA | DRAW | FULHAM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct (open) | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Sun 25 Oct | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.76 |
| Sat 31 Oct (kick-off) | 2.12 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 58.7%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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