AC Milan – Inter odds
Inter went into the match as clear favourites against AC Milan.
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AC Milan – Inter: closing odds analysis
- Inter were favourites: the closing odds implied a 47% chance of an away win, 27% for AC Milan and 27% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AC Milan 3.80 at Stake, the draw 3.65 at Oddset, Inter 2.05 at bwin.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.2%.
- Odds movement: the best price on AC Milan drifted from 3.00 at the opening to 3.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 55% chance of three or more goals and 57% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AC Milan or Inter?
Inter, clearly: the closing odds put 20.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AC Milan – Inter?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on AC Milan, Oddset on the draw and bwin on Inter. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.2%) and Bet25 the least (89.4%).
| BOOKMAKER | AC MILAN | DRAW | INTER | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 3.80 best price | 3.53 | 2.03 | 96.2% |
| bet365 | 3.80 best price | 3.50 | 2.00 | 95.3% |
| Stake | 3.80 best price | 3.55 | 1.98 | 95.2% |
| Betinia | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 best price | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 best price | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 best price | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 best price | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 best price | 95.1% |
| bwin | 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.05 best price | 95.0% |
| ComeOn | 3.62 | 3.57 | 2.00 | 94.7% |
| Oddset | 3.45 | 3.65 best price | 2.03 | 94.7% |
| GetLucky | 3.58 | 3.53 | 1.98 | 93.7% |
| Casinostuen | 3.58 | 3.53 | 1.98 | 93.7% |
| Betmaster | 3.50 | 3.35 | 2.05 best price | 93.3% |
| 888sport | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 91.9% |
| Mr Green | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 91.9% |
| Bet25 | 3.25 | 3.45 | 1.92 | 89.4% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.80 | 3.65 | 2.05 | 97.6% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 3.25–3.80 · 16.9% | 3.35–3.65 · 9.0% | 1.92–2.05 · 6.8% | 89.4–96.2% |
How did the AC Milan – Inter odds move before kick-off?
The best price on AC Milan drifted from 3.00 when odds opened on 25 Oct to 3.80 at kick-off, a 26.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AC MILAN | DRAW | INTER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 25 Oct (open) | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.28 |
| Wed 28 Oct | 3.45 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Sat 31 Oct (kick-off) | 3.80 | 3.65 | 2.05 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 57.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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