AaB – Hobro IK odds
AaB went into the match as heavy favourites against Hobro IK.
Full Time
1st Half
2nd Half
AaB – Hobro IK: closing odds analysis
- AaB were favourites: the closing odds implied a 56% chance of a home win, 20% for Hobro IK and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AaB 1.76 at Betinia, the draw 4.10 at VBET, Hobro IK 5.25 at bet365.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.3%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Hobro IK drifted from 3.40 at the opening to 5.25 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 54% chance of three or more goals and 52% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AaB or Hobro IK?
AaB, by a distance: the closing odds put 36.2 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AaB – Hobro IK?
It depended on the outcome: Betinia was best on AaB, VBET on the draw and bet365 on Hobro IK. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (95.3%) and Mr Green the least (89.6%).
| BOOKMAKER | AAB | DRAW | HOBRO IK | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 1.63 | 4.10 best price | 5.20 | 95.3% |
| Bet25 | 1.62 | 4.10 best price | 5.20 | 94.9% |
| Betinia | 1.76 best price | 3.78 | 4.40 | 94.3% |
| CampoBet | 1.76 best price | 3.78 | 4.40 | 94.3% |
| Casinomoto | 1.76 best price | 3.78 | 4.40 | 94.3% |
| Betoro | 1.76 best price | 3.78 | 4.40 | 94.3% |
| Casino House | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.33 | 93.8% |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 93.1% |
| bet365 | 1.61 | 3.75 | 5.25 best price | 92.7% |
| ComeOn | 1.59 | 3.96 | 5.05 | 92.6% |
| bwin | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.80 | 91.8% |
| Stake | 1.57 | 3.95 | 5.00 | 91.7% |
| GetLucky | 1.57 | 3.93 | 5.01 | 91.7% |
| Casinostuen | 1.57 | 3.93 | 5.01 | 91.7% |
| Betmaster | 1.60 | 3.75 | 4.70 | 90.5% |
| 888sport | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 89.6% |
| Mr Green | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 89.6% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.76 | 4.10 | 5.25 | 99.7% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.57–1.76 · 12.1% | 3.60–4.10 · 13.9% | 4.00–5.25 · 31.3% | 89.6–95.3% |
How did the AaB – Hobro IK odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Hobro IK drifted from 3.40 when odds opened on 24 Oct to 5.25 at kick-off, a 54.4% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AAB | DRAW | HOBRO IK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 24 Oct (open) | 1.99 | 3.65 | 3.40 |
| Tue 27 Oct | 1.78 | 3.89 | 4.30 |
| Fri 30 Oct (kick-off) | 1.76 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 51.6%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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