Fiorentina – Atalanta odds
Fiorentina went into the match as narrow favourites against Atalanta.
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Fiorentina – Atalanta: closing odds analysis
- Fiorentina were favourites: the closing odds implied a 42% chance of a home win, 32% for Atalanta and 26% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Fiorentina 2.35 at bet365, the draw 3.80 at Stake, Atalanta 3.10 at Oddset.
- VBET had the highest closing payout on the match result: 96.1%.
- Odds movement: the best price on the draw drifted from 3.60 at the opening to 3.80 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 58% chance of three or more goals and 66% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Fiorentina or Atalanta?
Fiorentina, but only just: the closing odds put 10.3 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Fiorentina – Atalanta?
It depended on the outcome: bet365 was best on Fiorentina, Stake on the draw and Oddset on Atalanta. Across all three outcomes VBET paid out the most (96.1%) and Bet25 the least (87.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | FIORENTINA | DRAW | ATALANTA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VBET | 2.34 | 3.79 | 2.86 | 96.1% |
| Oddset | 2.25 | 3.55 | 3.10 best price | 95.4% |
| Stake | 2.28 | 3.80 best price | 2.85 | 95.0% |
| bwin | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.80 | 94.5% |
| bet365 | 2.35 best price | 3.60 | 2.80 | 94.3% |
| Betinia | 2.20 | 3.66 | 3.00 | 94.2% |
| CampoBet | 2.20 | 3.66 | 3.00 | 94.2% |
| Betoro | 2.20 | 3.66 | 3.00 | 94.2% |
| Casino House | 2.20 | 3.66 | 3.00 | 94.2% |
| Betmaster | 2.23 | 3.35 | 3.05 | 93.0% |
| ComeOn | 2.18 | 3.47 | 3.02 | 92.8% |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 92.2% |
| Mr Green | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 | 92.2% |
| GetLucky | 2.16 | 3.44 | 2.99 | 91.9% |
| Casinostuen | 2.16 | 3.44 | 2.99 | 91.9% |
| Bet25 | 2.08 | 3.40 | 2.75 | 87.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 2.35 | 3.80 | 3.10 | 98.9% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.08–2.35 · 13.0% | 3.35–3.80 · 13.4% | 2.75–3.10 · 12.7% | 87.8–96.1% |
How did the Fiorentina – Atalanta odds move before kick-off?
The best price on the draw drifted from 3.60 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 3.80 at kick-off, a 5.6% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | FIORENTINA | DRAW | ATALANTA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.01 |
| Sat 24 Oct | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.09 |
| Thu 29 Oct (kick-off) | 2.35 | 3.80 | 2.86 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Three or more goals was priced as more likely than not. Both teams to score was priced at 66.0%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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