Parma – Udinese odds
Udinese went into the match as narrow favourites against Parma.
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Parma – Udinese: closing odds analysis
- Udinese were favourites: the closing odds implied a 38% chance of an away win, 32% for Parma and 30% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: Parma 3.00 at Stake, the draw 3.25 at Betinia, Udinese 2.62 at bet365.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.5%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Udinese drifted from 2.45 at the opening to 2.62 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 43% chance of three or more goals and 54% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, Parma or Udinese?
Udinese, but only just: the closing odds put 5.4 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on Parma – Udinese?
It depended on the outcome: Stake was best on Parma, Betinia on the draw and bet365 on Udinese. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.5%) and Bet25 the least (89.7%).
| BOOKMAKER | PARMA | DRAW | UDINESE | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 3.00 best price | 3.20 | 2.49 | 95.5% |
| Betinia | 3.00 best price | 3.25 best price | 2.45 | 95.3% |
| CampoBet | 3.00 best price | 3.25 best price | 2.45 | 95.3% |
| Casinomoto | 3.00 best price | 3.25 best price | 2.45 | 95.3% |
| Betoro | 3.00 best price | 3.25 best price | 2.45 | 95.3% |
| Casino House | 3.00 best price | 3.25 best price | 2.45 | 95.3% |
| VBET | 2.99 | 3.14 | 2.52 | 95.3% |
| Oddset | 2.90 | 3.15 | 2.54 | 94.7% |
| bet365 | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.62 best price | 94.5% |
| bwin | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.60 | 94.1% |
| ComeOn | 2.87 | 3.12 | 2.53 | 94.0% |
| Betmaster | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.55 | 93.4% |
| GetLucky | 2.85 | 3.09 | 2.50 | 93.1% |
| Casinostuen | 2.85 | 3.09 | 2.50 | 93.1% |
| 888sport | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.40 | 91.2% |
| Mr Green | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.40 | 91.2% |
| Bet25 | 2.70 | 3.05 | 2.40 | 89.7% |
| BEST PRICE | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.62 | 97.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 2.70–3.00 · 11.1% | 3.00–3.25 · 8.3% | 2.40–2.62 · 9.2% | 89.7–95.5% |
How did the Parma – Udinese odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Udinese drifted from 2.45 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 2.62 at kick-off, a 6.9% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | PARMA | DRAW | UDINESE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| Sat 24 Oct | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Wed 28 Oct (kick-off) | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
Fewer than three goals was the likelier outcome in the closing odds. Both teams to score was priced at 53.8%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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