AC Milan – Bologna odds
AC Milan went into the match as heavy favourites against Bologna.
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AC Milan – Bologna: closing odds analysis
- AC Milan were favourites: the closing odds implied a 58% chance of a home win, 18% for Bologna and 24% for a draw.
- Best closing odds: AC Milan 1.68 at bwin, the draw 4.20 at Betinia, Bologna 5.60 at Stake.
- Stake had the highest closing payout on the match result: 95.4%.
- Odds movement: the best price on Bologna drifted from 5.40 at the opening to 5.60 at kick-off.
- The closing odds implied a 51% chance of three or more goals and 47% that both teams score.
Who were the favourites, AC Milan or Bologna?
AC Milan, by a distance: the closing odds put 39.9 percentage points between the two sides.
Which bookmaker had the best closing odds on AC Milan – Bologna?
It depended on the outcome: bwin was best on AC Milan, Betinia on the draw and Stake on Bologna. Across all three outcomes Stake paid out the most (95.4%) and Bet25 the least (89.8%).
| BOOKMAKER | AC MILAN | DRAW | BOLOGNA | PAYOUT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stake | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.60 best price | 95.4% |
| VBET | 1.67 | 3.65 | 5.60 best price | 95.1% |
| Betinia | 1.63 | 4.20 best price | 5.00 | 95.1% |
| CampoBet | 1.63 | 4.20 best price | 5.00 | 95.1% |
| Casinomoto | 1.63 | 4.20 best price | 5.00 | 95.1% |
| Betoro | 1.63 | 4.20 best price | 5.00 | 95.1% |
| Casino House | 1.63 | 4.20 best price | 5.00 | 95.1% |
| bwin | 1.68 best price | 3.75 | 5.25 | 95.0% |
| Oddset | 1.61 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 95.0% |
| bet365 | 1.66 | 3.60 | 5.50 | 94.2% |
| ComeOn | 1.59 | 3.91 | 5.35 | 93.3% |
| Betmaster | 1.61 | 3.80 | 5.20 | 92.9% |
| GetLucky | 1.57 | 3.88 | 5.30 | 92.3% |
| Casinostuen | 1.57 | 3.88 | 5.30 | 92.3% |
| 888sport | 1.61 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 91.9% |
| Mr Green | 1.61 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 91.9% |
| Bet25 | 1.55 | 3.85 | 4.80 | 89.8% |
| BEST PRICE | 1.68 | 4.20 | 5.60 | 98.8% |
| SPREAD, LOW TO HIGH | 1.55–1.68 · 8.4% | 3.60–4.20 · 16.7% | 4.80–5.60 · 16.7% | 89.8–95.4% |
How did the AC Milan – Bologna odds move before kick-off?
The best price on Bologna drifted from 5.40 when odds opened on 19 Oct to 5.60 at kick-off, a 3.7% rise.
DATA
| BEST PRICE AT | AC MILAN | DRAW | BOLOGNA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct (open) | 1.63 | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| Sat 24 Oct | 1.64 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Wed 28 Oct (kick-off) | 1.68 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
How many goals did the odds expect?
The closing odds were close to an even split on three or more goals. Both teams to score was priced at 46.5%.
How we calculate
Implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds. A bookmaker's match-result probabilities add up to more than 100%; the excess is its margin. We remove each bookmaker's margin proportionally and average the result across every bookmaker that prices all three outcomes.
Payout is 1 ÷ (1/odds₁ + 1/odds₂ + 1/odds₃): the share of all stakes a bookmaker would return across every outcome. Best-price payout uses the highest price on each outcome, wherever it is offered. Prices more than 48 hours old are left out while fresher ones exist.
Odds movement follows the best price on each outcome from the moment at least three bookmakers priced the match, sampled daily.
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